Risk aversion collides with the hawkish Federal Reserve, and Bitcoin is trapped in the 104,000-108,000 shock cage!
News Analysis
Geopolitical risks + hawkish Fed:
The situation in the Middle East is tense, and the United States may intervene in the conflict between Israel and Iran. Risk aversion has pushed up gold, but Bitcoin has been suppressed. In addition, the Federal Reserve has kept interest rates unchanged and lowered its expectations for a rate cut in 2026. Powell's data-oriented hawkish statement has hit risky assets, causing BTC to continue to trade sideways at $103,000-108,000.
The favorable policies are more noise than rain:
Although Trump supports the stablecoin regulatory bill GENIUS, the market has found that there is no actual new capital entering the market. The good news has become a fuse for selling pressure, trading volume continues to shrink, and capital is in a wait-and-see mood.
Key technical signals
Resistance ceiling: USD 110,718 has become a strong pressure zone. Multiple surges and declines have verified the intensive selling pressure. Although MACD has formed a golden cross, the volume is insufficient and the rebound is bloated.
Life and death support level: 104,000 is the short-term long-short watershed. If it falls below this level with large volume, it will trigger the algorithm stop loss and go straight to the deep water area of 100,000; if it holds steady, the market will maintain volatility.
Bollinger Bands Suffocation: The track is narrowing to the extreme, and the market is changing! Historical data shows an 80% probability of a downward breakthrough, and the short green column is ready to move.
If the price breaks, chase the order; if it doesn't break, stay flat
Short order sniping: short if it falls below 104000, target 100000.
Long order raid: large volume breakthrough of 110718, chase longs, target 114,000.
Remember: The market at the end of a volatile market is like a meat grinder, and a light position with a stop loss is the life-saving talisman!
