Bitcoin rose to $105,000 due to tensions in the Middle East. Investors are concerned about the shock in oil supply that may occur as a result of Iran potentially imposing a blockade in the Strait of Hormuz.

This concern over oil prices is raising inflation worries alongside predictions of increases that could reach $120. This development further increases demand for Bitcoin and gold.

On the other hand, the upcoming interest rate decision of the US Central Bank (FOMC) is creating uncertainty in the market. Investors are closely monitoring how the Fed will respond to inflation and market fluctuations.

Bitcoin rose back to $105,000 after briefly falling to $103,000 on Wednesday. This increase is tied to the strengthening risk aversion trend in global markets due to rising geopolitical risks in the Middle East.

Iran's threat to close the Strait of Hormuz has heightened shock fears in the oil market. The Strait hosts about 20% of global oil trade. Iran's plan to control tanker crossings has raised concerns that it could lead to disruptions in global energy supply by increasing regional risks.

The popular X (Twitter) account Defense Intelligence, which closely monitors geopolitical risks, states that Iran's biggest leverage is not missiles, but its power to close the Strait of Hormuz. Political commentator Brian Krassenstein argues that this move will not lower gasoline prices or lead the Fed to cut interest rates.

OPEC+ intends to increase supply with plans to raise production in July. According to Reuters, rising demand in major oil producers like Saudi Arabia could balance this additional supply and support prices.

However, analysts warn that oil prices could rise sharply if the Strait of Hormuz is completely closed. According to JPMorgan, such a scenario could push oil to $120 and raise the CPI inflation in the US to 5%.

As uncertainties in the global supply chain continue, Bitcoin has regained the $105,000 level. According to BeInCrypto data, at the time of writing, BTC is trading at approximately $105,300.

While cryptocurrency is perceived as a safe haven against inflation and geopolitical uncertainties, gold prices are also rising amid increasing volatility. Rising energy costs negatively affect consumer prices, while Bitcoin and gold are increasing safe haven demand.

Analyst Daan Crypto Trades notes that Bitcoin's rise above $105,000 on Tuesday keeps its price in the range of $100,000–$110,000 on a monthly basis. This approximately 10% price movement is one of the narrowest ranges seen in a month.

The timing of Iran's announcement is critical. The US FOMC will announce its interest rate decision today, which stands out as the most important economic data of the week. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the market does not expect an immediate change in interest rates, but Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's statements will be closely monitored. Signals Powell gives regarding inflation strategy in light of geopolitical developments will be carefully followed by investors.

Tension in the markets is high. Cryptocurrency investors are prepared for market volatility as the Fed attempts to take balanced steps in combating inflation. The use of oil as a geopolitical tool and the instant reactions of the crypto market could seriously test Bitcoin's resistance. This could lead to sharp movements in the markets, especially if energy markets worsen or the Fed adopts a hawkish stance.


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