Khamenei's tough statement marks the Iran-Israel conflict entering a 'zero-sum game' phase, combined with the escalation of US military deployment and the implementation of US crypto regulations, the cryptocurrency market faces a triple pressure test.

1. Market's immediate reaction: High leverage gets wiped out under risk-averse sentiment

  1. Bitcoin's 'rollercoaster' market
    After Trump's warning to 'evacuate Tehran' on the 17th, Bitcoin fell from $109,000Plummeting by 8%to below $107,000, with 112,000 accounts liquidated for $394 million; Khamenei's 'never surrender' remarks intensified volatility; if it falls below the critical support level of $104,000, nearly $1.8 billion in long positions may be liquidated.

    • Reason: Escalation of geopolitical conflicts, risk assets are sold off, concentrated long leverage positions are liquidated. The crypto fear and greed index plummeted from 50 to 35, with funds shifting towards gold and the US dollar for safe-haven.

  2. Stablecoin trading volume surges
    Trading volume of stablecoins like USDT during conflictsIncreased by 15%Daily reaching $5 billion, indicating that investors view cryptocurrency as a 'temporary safe haven', but prefer low-volatility assets.

2. The chain of transmission of the impact of the conflict on the crypto market

(GENIUS Act) Mandatory compliance costs for stablecoins to have 100% reserves surge, USDT faces redemption risk, stablecoin premium volatility, 3 miners' hash power migration, Iran accounts for 4% of global Bitcoin mining, local power outages and internet controls, hash power shifts to Europe and the US, overall hash power declines in the short term.

Key contradiction: The narrative of Bitcoin as 'digital gold' has temporarily failed, as geopolitical risks directly impact global liquidity, making it closer to high-risk tech stock attributes.

3. The eye of the storm determines the market direction

  1. Federal Reserve interest rate decision announced on June 20
    If Powell signals dovishness, it may ease selling pressure in the crypto market; if he insists on hawkishness due to oil price inflation, BTC may drop to $100,000.

  2. Stablecoin regulatory framework consolidation
    The US House of Representatives will review the (GENIUS Act); if federal charters prioritize state rights, Tether may be forced to divest non-USD assets, triggering a $46 billion redemption.

Big D strategy advice: Focus on defense, closely monitor liquidity signals

Short term: Avoid high leverage, focus on the $104,000 BTC support level; allocate some stablecoins to cope with extreme volatility.

Medium term: If US troops engage directly, observe Iran's cyber attack capabilities and the risk of Houthi forces damaging Red Sea cables.

Long term: The entry of traditional financial institutions will promote the compliance of crypto assets, and a sharp decline may present a dollar-cost averaging opportunity.

Don't act blindly, pay attention to Big D, daily insights and strategy sharing, a professional team will guide you to avoid pitfalls and seize opportunities! Make your asset appreciation path clearer! $BTC #GENIUS稳定币法案