The Federal Reserve announced on June 19 to maintain the benchmark interest rate in the range of 4.25%-4.50%, marking the fourth consecutive pause since 2025, in line with market expectations.

1. Market Immediate Reaction: A Struggle Between Bulls and Bears Beneath a Calm Surface

  1. Price Volatility Limited but Liquidations Intensified
    Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) stabilized around $104,000 and $2,520 respectively after the resolution announcement, with the total market cap slightly dropping by 2% to $3.35 trillion. However,leveraged liquidations reached $224 millionwith Ethereum having the highest proportion, indicating fierce long-short battles, and short-term volatility risks remain.

  2. Policy Signal Interpretation Neutral
    The Federal Reserve lowered its GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 1.4%, while raising its inflation forecast to 3%. The dot plot shows a continued expectation of a 50 basis point rate cut in 2025, but among 19 officials, 7 believe 'there will be no rate cuts in 2025', highlighting the divide. Market expectations for a dovish turn fell short, but did not trigger panic selling.

2. Medium to Long-term Impact: Delayed Rate Cut Expectations Suppress Risk Appetite

  1. Liquidity Easing Delays Upward Momentum
    Federal Reserve official Bostic previously emphasized that there is 'no rush to cut rates', with a maximum of only one rate cut in 2025. The high interest rate environment willweaken institutional willingness to flow into risk assetsand cryptocurrency remains under pressure linked to U.S. stocks.

  2. Critical Time Window: Policy Shift in Q3

    • Short-term Fluctuation: From June to August, due to a policy vacuum period, BTC may fluctuate in the range of $98,000 to $112,000.

    • Potential Catalyst: If the July FOMC releases signals for rate cuts, combined with seasonal uptrends from September to November, BTC could start a rally towards $150,000.

3. Institutional Movements and On-chain Data: Long-term Support Factors Strengthen

  1. Continuous Inflow of ETF Funds
    Despite unchanged interest rates, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF recorded a net inflow of $216 million the day before the resolution, while the Ethereum ETF saw inflows of $11 million, indicatinginstitutional recognition of bottom value..

  2. Intensified Bitcoin Scarcity

    • “Ancient Supply” Growth: The proportion of BTC that hasn't moved in ten years reaches 17%, with 566 new coins added daily, exceeding the 450 coins produced by miners each day.

    • HODL Rate Turns Positive: Long-term holders are net absorbing circulation at a rate of 116 coins per day, tightening supply may drive future marginal prices up.

4. Risk Warning: Political and Macro Uncertainty

  1. Geopolitical Conflicts and Policy Interventions
    Escalation in the Middle East could impact the financial system, and Trump openly criticized Powell as 'stupid', making political pressure on the Federal Reserve a concern.

  2. Altcoin Selling Pressure Risks
    This week, ApeCoin faces a large token unlock of $10.34 million and Fasttoken $8.88 million, which could trigger localized sell-offs.

  3. Long-term Logic:
    Liquidity Shift + Normalization of Spot ETFs + Bitcoin Halving Effect may lead to a new bull market by the end of 2025.

The impact of Federal Reserve policy on cryptocurrency is essentially a reflection of liquidity. The current market is dormant in a period of macro signal ambiguity, yet it lays the groundwork for the next cycle—when rate cuts materialize, crypto assets may experience a 'Davis Double' explosive recovery.


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