ETH Urgent Report: Policy tailwinds are hard to counteract the technical headwinds, with $2380 as the critical line!

"Positive news is the sugar of the future, while technical breakdown is the knife of the present."

News Front: Policy tailwinds and political headwinds intertwine

  1. Policy Benefits Building Up

    • Accelerated Stablecoin Legislation: The US Congress has advanced the stablecoin bill for a vote, which, if passed, will attract institutional funds into the market, benefiting the ETH ecosystem.

    • Interest Rate Cut Expectations Rise: Trump calls for the Federal Reserve to cut rates; if realized, it may stimulate a rebound in risky assets, benefiting ETH.

    • Upgrade Countdown: July Pectra upgrade focuses on speeding up transactions and reducing costs, providing long-term value support.

  2. Risk Events Looming

    • Regulatory Minefield: The US (CLARITY Act) is under review; if ETH is classified as a security, it may trigger compliance-related sell-offs.

    • Political Black Swan: Trump and Musk publicly clash; similar events in the past have led to a 6.7% one-day drop in ETH.

    • ETF Fund Outflow: Spot ETFs have seen a net outflow of $369 million over 8 consecutive days, with institutions like BlackRock reducing holdings, putting pressure on prices.

Technical Front: Triple Bottom Prototype vs. Bearish Strangulation

  1. Bullish Dawn Begins to Appear

    • Triple Bottom Pattern: Recently formed three bottom tests at $2485; if it breaks $2700 with volume, it may trigger a rebound to $3000.

    • On-chain Capital Guarding: Ethereum's on-chain locked assets reach $21.9 billion, with whales buying on dips.

  2. Bears Dominating the Market

    • MACD Death Cross: DIF continues to be below DEA, and the downward momentum has not depleted.

    • Bollinger Bands: Price is closely touching the lower band, with the middle band acting as strong resistance. A drop below $2380 may trigger a waterfall to $2200.

    • Liquidation Alert: If ETH drops below $2500, it may trigger over $100 million in on-chain long liquidations, increasing selling pressure.

Policy Implementation Day may be the moment ETH takes off!
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