#加密概念美股 Circle's stock price surged dramatically after the passage of the 'GENIUS Act' and the explosive performance of its IPO, supported by real demand but also mixed with short-term emotional speculation. The IPO subscription ratio exceeded 20 times, with the issue price raised from $24-26 to $31, and the amount raised increased from $624 million to $1.054 billion, indicating active allocation of institutional funds. BlackRock not only subscribed to 10% of the shares but also collaborated with Circle to develop an on-chain fund exchange system, forming deep business synergies. 90% of USDC reserves are managed by BlackRock, with daily audits being transparent, and the 'GENIUS Act' clarifies its 'digital cash' status, clearing obstacles for traditional financial institutions to enter. The stock price increased sixfold within 10 days of listing, with market capitalization skyrocketing to $21.7 billion, but net profit in Q1 2025 was only $65 million. If interest rates decline, its model, which relies 99% on interest income, will be impacted. ARK Invest sold $96.5 million worth of stocks before the act's passage, accounting for 14% of its holdings, signaling profit-taking. The first-day increase of 234% triggered a trading halt, and retail investors chasing high prices could be hit by 'lock-up period release selling pressure'.

Short-term: Circle's surge overspends policy expectations, and caution is needed for profit adjustments due to interest rate cuts in Q3. Attention should be paid to the details of the House's amendments to the 'GENIUS Act'; if restrictions on banks issuing stablecoins are loosened, Paxos and Figure will benefit.

Long-term: A truly sustainable crypto IPO must simultaneously meet: strong cash flow, low regulatory substitute risks, and irreversible integration with traditional finance. Accordingly, Kraken and Fireblocks have greater potential to withstand cycles.