According to Jin10 data reports, the Federal Reserve has kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.25%-4.50%, marking the fourth consecutive meeting of inaction, which aligns with market expectations.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, during the FOMC press conference on June 18, added an unexpected hawkish twist to the long-awaited rate cut script. He unusually pointed the finger at fiscal policy, stating that the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration have become the 'elephant in the room' in the inflation narrative, which could significantly drive up prices in the coming months.
This rhetoric is nothing short of a cold splash of water on the market's enthusiasm for rate cuts. Powell reiterated that any easing is mere talk until there is 'sufficient confidence' that inflation will fall back to 2%. This firm statement not only highlights the Federal Reserve's policy determination under political pressure but also shrouds global markets, especially sensitive crypto assets, in the fog of macro uncertainty once again.
Tariffs: The New Protagonist of the Inflation Narrative and the Federal Reserve's 'Observer' Dilemma
Powell stated bluntly at the press conference: 'Tariffs have to be borne by someone, and part of it will ultimately be passed on to consumers.' He emphasized that the transmission path of tariffs to inflation is complex and lagging, and its effects will permeate both consumption and supply, therefore the Federal Reserve must enter a longer 'observation period'.
The core of this judgment lies in the fact that the impact of tariffs is not a 'one-time shock', but may evolve into more persistent inflationary pressures. This is consistent with his view presented at the May meeting that 'supply shocks are more frequent', but this time the speech directly establishes tariffs as the 'number one suspect' for the current inflation risk.
After the press conference, the three major U.S. stock indices fell in response, and bond yields fluctuated more intensely, indicating that investor concerns about 'stagflation' risks are heating up.
The 'Pseudo-Dove' Dot Plot Under Hawkish Rhetoric? Powell's Art of Language
Despite the inflation risk alarm sounding, the Federal Reserve's latest dot plot still maintains a 'dovish' expectation of two rate cuts (a total of 50 basis points) in 2025. However, the market is well aware that the devil is in the details.
Several key statements made by Powell during his speech revealed the Federal Reserve's true intentions:
'Moderately Restrictive' Policy: He described the current policy as 'moderate or moderately tight', suggesting that it has not yet reached a level that would choke off the economy, providing a theoretical basis for maintaining the status quo.
'The interest rate level is not very high': This understated comment was interpreted by the market as the strongest hawkish signal. It suggests that, in the eyes of the Federal Reserve, the interest rate range of 4.25%-4.5% has limited suppressive effects on the economy, and there is no urgency for a rate cut in the short term.
'The economy is performing well': He emphasized that a robust labor market and economic performance provide the Federal Reserve with enough strategic patience, eliminating the need to yield to calls for rate cuts from the market or politics.
As SPX options data shows, the market structure has exhibited characteristics of 'false easing, real warning'. The dot plot's 'promise of rate cuts' seems more like a soothing measure, while Powell's tough wording is the true policy guidance.
The Crypto Compass Under Macro Fog: Short-Term Pressure and Long-Term Narrative Game
Although Powell did not directly name cryptocurrencies, every word of his speech resonates with the nerves of the digital asset market.
In the short term, macroeconomic headwinds are nearly a foregone conclusion.
Liquidity Tightening: The 'Higher for Longer' interest rate environment means that the valuation ceiling for risk assets is firmly welded shut, and the liquidity that the cryptocurrency market relies on is unlikely to arrive in the short term.
Strengthening Dollar: Tariff-driven inflation expectations may push up the Dollar Index (DXY), creating natural pressure on dollar-denominated assets like Bitcoin.
However, a long-term narrative is quietly brewing.
'Anti-Inflation' Value Rekindled: If tariffs ultimately lead to sustained inflation in the U.S., Bitcoin as 'digital gold' will once again be placed on the table as a safe-haven narrative, attracting funds seeking asset preservation.
The 'X Factor' of Geopolitics: Although Powell downplayed the long-term impact of geopolitical conflicts on energy prices, the market still holds reservations. If situations in regions like the Middle East escalate, leading to a surge in oil prices, it may trigger a temporary risk-off sentiment, with some funds possibly flowing into BTC.
The policy game between the Federal Reserve and the Trump administration will be a key variable influencing the future direction of the cryptocurrency market. The actual impact of tariffs, the trend of inflation data, and the Federal Reserve's responses will all become core bases for market judgment.
Summary: Seeking Certainty Amid Uncertainty
Powell's speech on June 18 painted a complex macro picture for the market: the Federal Reserve is trying to walk a tightrope between tariff inflation, economic growth, and political pressure. Its cautious 'wait-and-see' attitude is both a defense of policy independence and a sign that the market will remain in a state of high uncertainty for the coming months.
For cryptocurrency investors, this means adapting to high volatility and macro suppression in the short term. However, opportunity and crisis always coexist. While closely monitoring key data such as CPI and PCE, it is also essential to deeply understand the evolving logic of the macro narrative.
