[Chart Source: AiCoin 15m K-line]
U.S. regulatory upgrades catalyze market sentiment
Recently, the U.S. Senate again passed the procedural agenda motion for the (GENIUS Stablecoin Act) (supporting votes 66:32), opening important opportunities for the issuance and regulatory framework of stablecoins, striving for a clearer regulatory path for crypto assets. This policy push releases signals that the 'digital dollar' will receive formal recognition from the state, providing long-term support for BTC.
K-line pattern: pullback confirmation, accumulating upward
From the chart, it can be seen: the recent high is around $108,952, and the low has pulled back to $103,371. This range has formed a clear horizontal accumulation pattern.
Fell back from the high on the 18th, but subsequently stabilized near MA10/30, showing a 'pullback–bottoming–rise' rhythm, consistent with a three-phase rising structure.
Large capital dynamics & CME gap
OBV (net trading volume) oscillates in a low position during the pullback, but has not collapsed, indicating that institutional funds are still slowly entering.
The key is the existence of a CME weekly settlement gap, with the gap range approximately between $104,200–$105,500: the upper gap has not been completely filled, and the market usually has an inertia to 'fill gaps', which provides technical support for subsequent upward breakthroughs.
If this area continues to receive support, the possibility of further rising towards $110,000–$112,000 or even higher cannot be ruled out.
Technical Indicator Analysis
MACD: delayed decline from the peak, has formed a 'death cross', but still maintains a bullish structure above the zero axis, indicating short-term stability.
RSI hovers around the midline (50–55), with no obvious overbought or oversold conditions, indicating an increased possibility of horizontal consolidation, but does not rule out a quick upward surge after the breakthrough force accumulates.
KDJ indicator J value falls back and then rises again, with mid-term rebound signals emerging.
Positive news
On Tuesday, the U.S. Senate passed the (GENIUS Act) with 68 votes in favor and 30 against, marking the first comprehensive regulatory reform bill for cryptocurrencies in the U.S. This bill, led by Republican Senator Bill Hagerty of Tennessee, will establish a regulatory framework for stablecoins pegged to the dollar, marking an important breakthrough for the digital asset industry in the legislative field. 18 Democratic senators supported the bill alongside a majority of Republicans, which will now be submitted for further review in the House of Representatives.
Continuous large institutional funding layouts and ETF position increases (BTC ETF has recently seen stable inflows), along with clear stablecoin laws, further enhance institutional confidence.
Comprehensive conclusions and market outlook
Range oscillation is dominant, and the upward trend remains intact.
The pullback to the 103–104k support area is solid, and after returning to the gap area, the bullish structure is clear. After breaking out, if MACD regains the golden cross, it may further impact 110–112k. Capital is still flowing in, and the main CME gap remains unfilled.
Under the long-short game, the funding line (OBV) suggests an accumulation state. If the gap continues to pressure support, the impact after the breakout will be enhanced, and a new high in the short term cannot be ruled out. The short-term is critical, and timing is key.
If a pullback confirms the 104–105k support in the coming days, and MA10/30, RSI, and KDJ confirm a strengthening trend, the bulls are expected to continue to exert force; otherwise, caution is needed for the technical indicators' death cross to further realize the downside adjustment risk (target can drop to around 102k). Policy benefits continue to increase.
The stablecoin bill is approaching its final vote, and if formally passed, it will provide an unprecedented legal identity for crypto assets, boosting the entire market structure, and is expected to become a significant positive signal in the second half of the year.
Strategy suggestion (for reference only)
In conclusion
In this round, BTC's pullback has solidified the bottom, with no signs of capital withdrawal; if the CME gap is maintained and confirmed, BITC is expected to challenge $112,000–$115,000 again after breaking through 110k; if U.S. stablecoin regulations continue to advance, the second half of 2025 may welcome an X2 or even X3 style explosion.
However, in the short term, it is necessary to hold the 104–105k support level. If this range is breached, the probability of a pullback to 102k or even 100k will increase—at that time, it may be a good opportunity for the next entry.
