$BTC

Nick has started to take precautions again, expressing the idea that "the situation is stronger than individuals." No matter what the Federal Reserve officials do, it won't change the fact that the Fed will adjust its pace and policies based on the real market at any time.

Yesterday he also stated that if it weren't for Trump's reckless tariff war, interest rates would have already been lowered.

Similarly, if Trump rashly intervenes in Iran for its interests and triggers a hot war, leading to inflation, the rate cuts would be even further away.

If Trump really intervenes militarily in Iran, it could trigger a "inflation-interest rate" death spiral: Iran could retaliate by blocking the Strait of Hormuz, causing oil prices to skyrocket to over 120+, directly pushing up the U.S. CPI by about 2.5 percentage points.

What the market needs to recognize now is that the path of real interest rates depends on Trump's actions and the outcome of the game regarding the risk of market collapse.

Tonight, Trump and Powell are likely to start a fierce battle again.

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