The Approval Outcome for Solana (SOL) ETF in the U.S. Could Occur in July or October
The approval of the U.S. spot SOL ETF could happen next July or October.
The SOL market is experiencing slight selling pressure but still maintains low demand in both the spot and futures markets.
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has postponed its decision on Franklin Templeton's application for a Solana (SOL) ETF. This decision has caught the attention of the cryptocurrency investment community, especially as analysts predict the future trends of the SOL market.
In response to this news, Bloomberg's ETF analyst, Eric Balchunas, remarked that the delay was "expected" and added,
"The probability of approval is about 90%. The decision remains in the SEC's hands after the S-1 applications are resubmitted. The SEC and issuers exchanging information is a positive signal. The expected timeline is unclear, but 2-4 weeks is quite ambitious."
His colleague at Bloomberg, James Seyffart, emphasized that he wouldn't be surprised if ETF products are launched next month or before the year-end deadline.
"I wouldn't be entirely surprised if we see the approval of the Solana ETF within the next month. But it’s also possible to wait until the October deadline. The timing remains uncertain."
Notably, the regulatory agency has started discussions with issuers regarding the staking profile of the SOL ETF, which analysts view positively for the approval prospects.
Minimal pressure from the SOL market, Low demand
Indeed, even VanEck's ETF, VSOL, has been on the waiting list of the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC) before its launch. This reflects a similar approval process for Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), contributing to the likelihood of SOL's success.
Source: DTCC
Despite many uncertainties, data from Glassnode shows that the realized profit of SOL had decreased to $32 million as of June 17, indicating that investors have not abandoned their positions despite global political fluctuations.
Previous local price peaks of SOL often led to profit-taking from $700 million to over $1 billion. This indicates that the current selling pressure is still low, with most investors expecting SOL to continue increasing in price.
Source: Glassnode
SOL Price Declines Sharply, Market Demand Decreases
In terms of price, SOL has dropped from $180 to $147, a decrease of 22%. The profit-taking pressure is less than expected, partially reflecting investor expectations that ETF approval will create a breakthrough for SOL's price in the future.
If the ETF is approved, the influx of investment capital could help SOL turn the tide, even creating a new all-time high. Analysts predict potential growth of 1.4 to 8.9 times, based on different market scenarios.
For instance, predictions based on technical analysis or traditional forecasting models assert that SOL's price could reach between $170 and $1,000, with an average around $400, if the ETFs are approved and attract substantial capital.
Source: https://tintucbitcoin.com/sec-hoan-etf-solana-du-90-chap-thuan/
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