The explosive growth of Binance and the long-term accumulation phenomenon of investors
Binance's trading volumes have surged, especially as the number of mid-term holders has doubled, signaling an increasing accumulation capability among institutional investors. This reflects confidence in the long-term potential of the cryptocurrency market, even though Bitcoin (BTC) has decreased by 1.79% to 104,950 USD in the past 24 hours. According to data from CryptoQuant, the UTXO addresses of BTC have doubled from 6 million to 12 million, indicating a more sustainable accumulation move among investors. This momentum is often a positive sign, indicating the potential to build a bullish foundation based on long-term accumulation.
Source: CryptoQuant
The market is wavering, caution is needed before suppressive signals
However, short-term demand remains fragile, and traders need to be cautious as trend confirmation signals are not clear. This caution reflects the divided sentiment between short-term and long-term investors, preventing the market from exiting the accumulation phase or waiting for clearer confirmation. Analysts suggest that positive signs from mid-term holders could create a bullish scenario in the near future as the trend repeats the accumulation pattern.
Binance dominates the spot market and controls the flow of funds
In one day, Binance's spot trading market share surged from 24% to 53%, a sudden jump revealing a massive influx of capital moving strongly into this exchange. This could be the result of institutional traders or large funds using Binance due to its deep liquidity and optimal cost trading structure. This sudden control often signals the market may enter a phase of strong volatility, especially when accumulating according to strategy or preparing for explosive price movements ahead of major events.
Source: CryptoQuant
The risk of market takeover, potential long-term impact
Continuously, the sudden concentration of volume on one exchange can lead to a more centralized market, causing instability in price structure and long-term market orientation. If this trend continues, analysts are concerned that such control could reduce competition, impacting the price discovery mechanisms of the cryptocurrency market in general.
Does the Stock-to-Flow ratio of 580 confirm the extreme scarcity of BTC?
Currently, Bitcoin's Stock-to-Flow (S/F) ratio has surged to 580, much higher than the historical average. This ratio measures the ratio of circulating supply to annual issuance, with a high level indicating a significant reduction in supply, laying the foundation for a long-term bull run. However, this high level may be 'noisy' due to factors such as reduced selling from miners or temporary on-chain volatility. Nevertheless, a high S/F ratio is still a positive signal, but it cannot be guaranteed that prices will rise immediately without a clear increase in demand.
Source: Santiment
The contribution of technical indicators and the lack of consensus in market sentiment
The social dominance index has dropped to 19.88%, while Binance's funding rate remains neutral at 0.001%. This reflects indecisive sentiment within the community, with neither side having a clear advantage. The negative divergence threshold in indicators such as DAA suggests the market is in a state of hesitation, waiting for stronger driving factors to trigger significant volatility. When these indicators break out of the current accumulation zone, the likelihood of large price movements will increase.
Source: Santiment
Consideration between long-term accumulation strength and short-term stagnation
The current Bitcoin market is trapped between two opposing forces: the strong accumulation of long-term holders and the lack of dissemination of sentiment from the retail community. Accumulation metrics of mid-term UTXO and increasing Binance market share suggest growing confidence among institutions, while indicators such as DAA and social sentiment show a retreat of retail investors.
For Bitcoin to break out of the accumulation zone and create a sustainable upward trend, there needs to be clear consensus among these factors. Currently, the market is still in a decisive phase, with the potential to explode or be affected by signs of retreating speculative sentiment if these indicators do not clearly reflect long-term expectations.
Source: https://tintucbitcoin.com/ty-le-nay-phan-anh-cu-soc-bitcoin/
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