🔍 A systematic and concise analysis of the BTC/USDT pair – June 18, 2025
Current price: $104,284.70 📉 (-1.47%)
🧠 1. Comprehensive technical outlook (with a simplified approach)
🔸 Overall trend: Bullish in the medium term, despite a current decline from the peak of $111,980.
🔸 Strong support zone: between $97,000 and $100,000 – recently tested and the price is holding above it.
🔸 Nearby resistance: at $105,960 – if broken with a daily close, we may see a push towards $110,000 again.
📊 Momentum is temporarily weak (MACD and RSI signals in neutral zones), indicating a potential short sideways fluctuation before a clear direction is taken.
🌍 2. The impact of geopolitical tensions globally
🇺🇸 United States / Middle East:
Unprecedented escalation in the Strait of Hormuz and threats to close the maritime corridor, increasing demand for alternative assets like gold and Bitcoin as a hedge against risks.
🏦 The U.S. Federal Reserve:
Uncertainty regarding interest rate cuts in the July meeting. Markets await the next speech from Jerome Powell, making Bitcoin very sensitive to any indication of easing or tightening monetary policy.
🇨🇳 China launches a new digital yuan project:
Strict regulatory signals on cryptocurrencies there, but conversely pushing users towards decentralized currencies like BTC.
📰 3. Key news and trends
💼 BlackRock injects additional investments into Bitcoin ETF funds, indicating continued institutional interest despite volatility.
💰 An increase in withdrawals from platforms indicates long-term accumulation (moving cryptocurrencies from exchanges to cold wallets).
📲 A 32% increase in mentions of Bitcoin on social media over the week, driven by rumors of a new pumping wave led by major investors.
🔎 4. Summary and forecasts
Range, forecast, and notes
Short (days) fluctuation between $101,000 and $106,000, waiting for a clear breakout or breakdown
Average (weeks) upward towards $110,000 if political and monetary indicators stabilize
Long (months) towards $120,000, provided institutional buying pressure continues
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