$BTC Bitcoin has shown wild swings in recent weeks. As of mid-May 2025, BTC traded near $104–106K
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, its highest levels in many months. This recent rally – driven by strong spot accumulation and ETF inflows – has pushed nearly all Bitcoin supply into profit (Glassnode reports ~97% in profit)
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. At the same time, on-chain data signal both deep buying and caution. For example, Glassnode charts highlight heavy accumulation zones around $93–95K, which have become key short-term support levels (white boxes in the chart below)
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Chart: Glassnode supply heatmap shows clustered accumulation at $93–95K (red box), supporting recent price moves toward $104K
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. On a technical basis, Bitcoin is in a long-term uptrend but is showing signs of near-term fatigue. Binance analysis notes that Bitcoin’s RSI (~75) and CCI (184) are in overbought territory
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, and volume on green candles has been declining
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. In practice, BTC has ranged roughly $103–105K after its latest surge
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. Short-term traders should watch $102–100K as critical support (any break below could signal a pullback) and $110K as strong resistance
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. In summary, Bitcoin’s momentum is still upward, but key indicators warn that a pause or correction is possible.
On-Chain Trends and Sentiment
On-chain metrics underscore both strength and potential caution. Glassnode data show that long-term holders are accumulating and off-exchange reserves are falling. For example, Binance Research notes that exchange BTC balances have declined markedly in Q2 2025
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, implying a supply squeeze that tends to be bullish. Similarly, Glassnode finds that coins held in loss are rising (over 3 million coins recently moved into profit
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), signaling renewed conviction by long-term investors despite high prices. However, cautionary signals are also flashing. With BTC at $104–106K, realized profit/loss ratios and Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) are at levels associated with past market euphoria
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. In plain terms, nearly everyone who bought Bitcoin is now in profit, so many holders have a strong incentive to sell or rebalance. Glassnode notes that 94–97% of supply is “in the money”
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– a high-risk signal that often precedes corrections. Institutional flows show continued interest but some cooling. Q1 and April 2025 saw huge ETF inflows: Glassnode reports total BTC ETF holdings near $125B, and CoinMarketCap data show ~$3.0 billion net into Bitcoin ETFs in April alone (with BlackRock’s IBIT accounting for ~91% of that)
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. These inflows helped fuel the rally (ETF daily flows peaked around $389M on April 25 according to Glassnode
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). Yet ETF flows have become more volatile: the largest ETF outflows in April were $328M in one day
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. In practice, ETF demand remains strong but is no longer just one-way – traders should watch whether inflows accelerate or stall. Sentiment gauges likewise show excitement but also wariness. The Crypto Fear & Greed index was in “Greed” territory recently (around 70+), and social/media chatter is bullish. Options markets even show speculative bets on $200–300K by year-end
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. On the other hand, Glassnode’s “Market Pulse” warns that netflows are cooling and spot market activity has weakened even as prices climbed
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. In short, the market has tilted risk-on, but key on-chain and flow indicators counsel vigilance. Traders should note that, historically, extreme greed/euphoria phases often end in at least short-term profit-taking.
Macroeconomic & Regulatory Factors
Broader macro factors are increasingly important. The U.S. Federal Reserve is holding interest rates high (around 4.25–4.50%) into mid-2025
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. Market expectations now price in rate cuts later in 2025, which would boost risk assets – but any delay or hawkish surprise could cool crypto. In fact, rising U.S. deficits and global debt are eroding the dollar’s status. Coinbase Research argues that a weaker dollar could eventually push institutions to diversify into Bitcoin (even projecting potential $1.2 trillion inflows if countries add BTC to reserves)
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. Geopolitical and regulatory news also sway Bitcoin. Recently, trade tensions have flared (e.g. new tariffs announced by the U.S. on trading partners), prompting market volatility. For instance, Glassnode noted a brief BTC dip as traders reacted to trade-news shocks
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. On regulation, developments have been mostly crypto-friendly in early 2025: U.S. regulators issued guidance clarifying that fiat-backed stablecoins are not securities (removing a key uncertainty)
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, and some state treasuries are even exploring crypto reserves
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. However, any setbacks – such as renewed regulatory clampdowns or higher-than-expected inflation – could weigh on BTC in the short run. Institutional adoption remains a strong tailwind. Major firms continue to add Bitcoin to their balance sheets or funds. Tether disclosed it bought 8,888 BTC in Q1 2025 (raising its reserves to over 75,000 BTC), and MicroStrategy (now “Strategy”) added ~10,000 BTC in April
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. JP Morgan recently suggested that U.S. states buying Bitcoin for reserves could help BTC outperform gold in 2025
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. Moreover, surveys (e.g. Kraken’s) indicate very positive sentiment among crypto holders: over 90% expect crypto to modernize the economy
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. These trends argue that, despite occasional pullbacks, institutional adoption may continue to buoy Bitcoin’s fundamentals.
Technical Outlook and Scenarios
Technical charts reinforce a cautiously bullish outlook if key supports hold. On the daily chart, BTC’s higher-high pattern from the March 2025 lows remains intact, with a now-established support near $100K
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. If Bitcoin can sustain above $100K and break above the $105–110K zone, chart patterns suggest a move toward $115–120K by June is plausible
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. The Binance forecast for May 2025 similarly sees BTC moving in $102–110K range (assuming no major shocks), with an upside breakout enabling $115–120K targets
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. In contrast, a break below $100K could trigger sharper selling. The next major support is around $95K (the April 2025 low). Binance’s analysis considered a drop to $95K as unlikely given current demand, but warned that macro shifts or fading momentum could make a pullback to that level possible
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. A big daily close below $100K (especially on rising volume) would invalidate some bullish scenarios, suggesting traders then rethink exposure. We can sketch two main scenarios for end-June 2025:
Bullish Scenario (Buy/Hold): If economic conditions remain stable and institutional flows continue, Bitcoin could push past $110K. In this case, earlier pullbacks to the low $100Ks would have been buying opportunities. Traders might ride momentum toward $115–120K by late June
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. In this scenario, technicals (uptrend lines, RSI divergence) point to further gains, and fundamental support (ETF and corporate demand) remains strong.
Bearish/Corrective Scenario (Hold/Sell): If a new risk-off event occurs (e.g. renewed Fed tightening, geopolitical crisis, or evidence that BTC has overheated), Bitcoin could fall back toward $95–100K. In that case, profit-taking would be prudent, at least temporarily. Traders might trim positions on breakdown below $100K and wait for re-test of support. Glassnode warns that without fresh capital, a correction “looms”
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. Even in a correction, Bitcoin’s longer-term narrative (halving in 2024, institutional adoption) stays intact, so a drop to mid-90Ks could be a healthy re-entry point.
Trader Guidance
In summary: Bitcoin’s outlook in late May–June 2025 remains broadly bullish on fundamentals, but short-term risks are elevated. On-chain signals (99% in profit, short-term holders highly loaded) and technicals (overbought RSI) urge caution. At the same time, strong spot demand, ETF inflows (nearly $3B in April
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), and institutional accumulation suggest the rally has room to run if macro factors cooperate.
If you’re bullish: Continue to hold or accumulate on dips. Use support around $100K–$95K as buying zones, especially if fundamental catalysts persist (e.g. positive policy news or large fund flows). Monitor technical breakouts above $105–110K for possible continuation. In this case, targets could extend into the mid-$100Ks by end-June
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.
If you’re cautious/bearish: Consider taking profits on strength or hedging. A clear close below $100K might prompt selling to preserve gains. Watch macro cues (Fed announcements, USD moves, trade news) closely. If a sell-off begins, wait for BTC to stabilize (e.g. bottoming near $95K) before re-entering. Given the strong long-term thesis, any dip could be another buying opportunity – but only after confirmation.
Ultimately, trades should be aligned with your risk tolerance. The data-backed view shows Bitcoin in a mature uptrend, but near a speculative peak with both bullish and bearish forces at play. By combining these technical, on-chain, and macro insights, traders can decide whether to buy, hold, or sell BTC for the coming weeks. Sources: Authoritative data and analysis from Glassnode (on-chain charts and reports)
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, Binance Research (tech analysis, flows)
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, Coinbase research (macro outlook)
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, Kraken insights
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, and CoinMarketCap/Reflexivity Research (ETF flows, corporate buys)
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. These sources provide the factual basis for the above market evaluation and scenarios.
#BTC🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 #BinanceAlpha$1.7MReward