Geopolitical conflicts lead to market declines, can the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting guide the market to rise again?
The market is moving as expected, and if the current Israel-Palestine conflict continues to escalate, its short-term impact on the market will be minimal. The last expected position is below 100,000. If the situation eases, the market will rise quickly.
Next, we need to focus on #美联储FOMC会议 . From the pricing of CME federal funds rate futures, the probability of maintaining the interest rate unchanged in June has reached 99%, and the probability for July to keep the rate unchanged is also as high as 85%. The market's expectation probability for a 25 basis point rate cut in September is close to 50%. These expectations have been fully digested by the market and will not cause unexpected shocks.
Therefore, the upcoming dot plot will be crucial. It will not only reveal whether there is still room for two rate cuts this year but also reflect the Federal Reserve's latest judgment on the persistence of inflation. Since the market overwhelmingly believes there will be no rate cut in June, the announcement tonight of no rate cut is also within expectations.
We need to pay close attention to the press conference at 2:30. This is the time when the market is most prone to sudden fluctuations, and both long and short positions need to have stop-losses in place. If Powell reveals during the press conference that multiple rate cuts will be implemented this year, it would be positive for the crypto market, and there would be a chance for a reversal. Another possible outcome is that we may need to wait and see, or that a rate cut might not happen until the end of the year, which would not be favorable for U.S. stocks or Bitcoin and could lead to a market decline. If the market breaks below the trend line of 98,000 at this time, a larger retracement may occur, triggering a market sell-off.
In terms of trading strategy, one can choose to act after the news comes out. Personally, I prefer short positions and may consider placing short orders again above 107k. If there are any other changes in the market, I will announce them in a small circle.
