#FOMCMeeting

With the Federal Reserve’s June 17–18 FOMC meeting underway, the market has almost fully priced out any chance of a rate cut this month. According to the latest CME FedWatch Tool, there’s now a 99.6% probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in June, with only 0.4% chance of a 25 basis point cut. Expectations for the first rate cut have shifted further down the calendar, with September now showing around 60% odds for potential easing.

This persistent “higher-for-longer” stance reflects the Fed’s cautious approach amid still-elevated inflation and signs of labor market resilience. Recent economic data suggests that inflation remains sticky near the Fed’s 2% target, while job growth continues to surprise on the upside. As a result, monetary policymakers are opting to wait for clearer signals before making any rate adjustments.

For investors in crypto and other risk assets, this delay in rate cuts could mean continued short-term volatility. Assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum, which often thrive in looser monetary environments, may struggle to gain sustained upward momentum in the coming weeks. However, sharp dips in price could present strategic buying opportunities for long-term holders, especially as institutional interest in crypto remains strong.

The key macro catalysts to watch in the near term are upcoming inflation reports (like CPI and PCE) and labor market updates. A softer inflation print or signs of economic slowing could reignite dovish sentiment and boost risk appetite across crypto and equities.

Given the current macro backdrop, investors should stay defensive but flexible. Maintaining core positions in strong crypto assets like BTC and ETH while keeping cash reserves on hand for tactical entry points may offer the best balance between risk management and potential upside as the Fed’s path gradually becomes clearer.