#FOMCMeeting 🏦 What the Fed Did

No rate change The Federal Reserve kept the federal funds target at 4.25–4.50%, marking the fourth consecutive hold. This aligns with market expectations and reflects a cautious stance amid economic uncertainty.

📊 What They Said

Dot‑plot shift Fed officials likely trimmed their 2025 projected rate cuts from two to just one. The Summary of Economic Projections suggests fewer cuts as inflation risks loom .

Caution on trade & inflation Tariff tensions and rising oil prices especially due to Middle East conflict were highlighted as upside inflation risks. The Fed signaled it's holding steady until clarity emerges .

Independence reaffirmed Prior political pressure, including from former President Trump, hasn't swayed the Fed. Chair Powell and the FOMC stressed data-led decisions to protect their credibility.

🔍 Key Metrics

Indicator Status

Inflation Cooling slightly CPI ~2.4%, PCE ~2.1% though tariff-driven risks persist

Labor Market Still solid but showing signs of weakening with moderate job growth

Markets Investors trimmed long-dated bonds as expectations shifted; futures now price ~60% odds of first cut in September

✅ Bottom Line

The Fed stuck to its cautious, data-dependent pause at 4.25–4.50%, trimmed its projected cuts for 2025, and underscored its independence amid global and domestic uncertainties. Monetary easing is expected, but not until late 2025, with September being the earliest likely option.