Go up more, and empty out. Don’t always think about getting in at the lowest and eating at the highest. In this unstable situation, not losing money is the way to go; securing profits is what matters.
Focus on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on Thursday. The market generally expects the federal funds rate to remain unchanged in the range of 4.25%-4.50%. This means that the likelihood of rate hikes or cuts in the short term is low.
Although interest rates are likely to remain unchanged, the world's attention will be closely fixed on Fed Chair Powell's post-meeting speech and his tone! Every word he says, every pause he takes, could indicate the future direction of monetary policy, directly affecting the stock market, bond market, housing market, and even our cryptocurrency market!
The most concerning question is: Will the rate cut be postponed again?
We must understand that the market has been eagerly anticipating a rate cut for a long time! Originally, everyone expected several rate cuts this year, but due to fluctuating inflation data and a still strong labor market, the expectations for rate cuts have been repeatedly pushed back. If Powell's speech this time is still hawkish (leaning towards maintaining high rates), or if he doesn’t give clearer guidance on the timing of rate cuts, our “dream of rate cuts” may be delayed again.
Global ripple effect: The Federal Reserve's monetary policy has a crucial impact on the global economy, especially regarding the US dollar and international capital flows.
What should we pay attention to in this meeting?
Inflation wording: How does Powell evaluate the current level of inflation and future inflation expectations?
“Dot plot”: Although it may not be updated this time, if new economic forecasts (SEP) and the dot plot are released, it will be an important reference for the future path of interest rates.
Reliance on data: Will there be continued emphasis that future policy will “depend on data”?
Regardless of the outcome, this FOMC meeting will be a key event influencing the market direction in the second half of the year.
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