#FOMCMeeting
FOMC Meeting Update – June 17, 2025
✅ Key Highlights
Rates Held Steady: The Fed is widely expected to keep the federal funds rate in the 4.25–4.50% range, where it has been since December 2024.
Geopolitical & Trade Risks: Rising Middle East tensions and continued U.S. tariffs have led to oil price volatility and inflation uncertainty.
Economic Data Signals Slowdown: Retail sales fell ~0.7% in May, and industrial output remains flat—signs of softening growth.
Inflation & Labor Outlook: Inflation is now around 2.1%, while unemployment holds steady at 4.2%.
Dot Plot & Futures Watch: The Fed’s new dot plot is expected to reflect only one rate cut in 2025, likely in September.
Independence Under Scrutiny: Despite political pressures, the Fed signals it remains data-driven, not politically influenced.
📅 What to Watch
Wed Jun 18 (2 p.m. EDT / 18:00 GMT):
• Release of the policy statement and Summary of Economic Projections (dot plot)
• Powell’s press conference, offering market-moving tone and insights
🔍 Bottom Line
The Fed is expected to remain on hold, emphasizing a cautious, data-dependent approach. With stabilizing inflation but slowing growth and rising external risks, the Fed is treading carefully into the second half of 2025.