What’s going to happen after FOMC?
Here’s what happens once the FOMC meeting wraps up:
⸻
1. Official statement & rate decision (2 p.m. ET)
• The Fed will announce its decision on interest rates and issue a statement explaining economic conditions and their policy outlook. This June meeting is expected to hold rates steady at 4.25–4.50%, citing inflation and tariff pressures .
2. Summary of Economic Projections (dot plot)
• Accompanying the statement will be the updated “dot plot”, showing each FOMC voter’s projection for future rate moves. Analysts expect the median to reflect 1–2 rate cuts in 2025, possibly pushed to September or October .
3. Powell’s press conference (~2:30 p.m. ET)
• Fed Chair Jerome Powell will answer questions, offering deeper insight into the decision—like reasons for holding, warnings about tariff-driven inflation, and the timing of future rate cuts .
4. Market reaction
• Expect volatility around the statement, dot plot, and Powell’s press conference—often termed the “announcement effect.” Markets particularly focus on nuance in language and tone . With rate cuts not immediate, equities and bonds may swing based on how dovish or hawkish the tone is.
5. Minutes (about 3 weeks later)
• Roughly three weeks after, the Fed will release meeting minutes, offering detailed discussion logs—what members debated, their economic outlooks, and whether future rate cuts are likely .
⸻
🚦 So, what comes after:
Stage What’s Next
Late 2025 Markets expect the first rate cut in September or October, though projections may vary .
Economic data The Fed is watching inflation (especially tariff-related), employment trends, oil prices, and global risks like geopolitical flare-ups .
Long‑term trajectory If inflation stays mild and labor market cools gradually, Fed may shift to easing. But stronger inflation or economic shocks could postpone cuts into late 2025 or beyond .
⸻
🔍 Bottom line:
• Today: Fed holds rates, updates economic projections, and Powell explains the decision.
• Next few days: Markets digest tone and timing hints; bond yields and equities may move accordingly.
• 3 weeks out: Minutes give deeper detail on future policy thought.
• Fall 2025: Keep an eye on data trends—could trigger the first rate cut.
DYOR