The recent update of the Index Bitcoin Cycle Indicators (IBCI) shows a market at a point of definition. After the strong upward movement between the end of 2023 and the first quarter of 2024 - when the IBCI reached the distribution region (above 75%) - the indicator went through a correction following the fall in the price of BTC.
Currently, IBCI has stabilized in the 50% range, indicating a neutral point in the market cycle.
Historically, equilibrium zones like this occur between two decisive phases: the end of a realization movement and the start of a new upward leg.
The absence of extreme euphoria and the gradual recovery of the Bitcoin price suggest that the market is in a transitional phase - not exhaustion.
The behavior of the IBCI over the last decade confirms this pattern: bullish cycles tend to end only when the index consistently reaches the 100% zone.
At the moment, there is no such signal. This reinforces that the market may be preparing for a new upward impulse.
The current consolidation around the 50% region serves as a foundation for a possible return to the distribution zone, especially if the on-chain fundamentals continue to strengthen the ecosystem.
Therefore, a window of opportunity is opening up where the IBCI seeks the Distribution region again, as long as the BTC price continues to reach new all-time highs.
Written by G a a h
