On-Chain analytics uses metrics like MVRV, UTXO Value Bands, A. SOPR, Exchange Reserve and more to interpret blockchain data at both micro and macro levels. These tools help us understand what's happening on-chain and guide informed decisions.
However, this constant search for micro-signals to extrapolate macro insights—while often useful—can sometimes obscure the broader cyclical forces that truly drive Bitcoin’s long-term price behavior.
The Bitcoin Yearly Percentage Trend corrects this by showing Bitcoin's yearly performance since 2011. It reveals a recurring cycle of three years of growth followed by one of consolidation, matching Bitcoin's four-year halving rhythm.
See chart for full historical visualization.
The importance of this growth cycle is that, based on this metric, if Bitcoin maintains the pace typical of the third year in the cycle, it could grow about 120% during 2025. Starting from $93,226, this would take the price to $205,097, potentially marking the cycle top for this year.
If this logic holds, it's likely that 2025 will close as the third consecutive bullish year, thus completing another positive cycle. This places us in the final phase of the current cycle, with important strategic implications for investors aiming to align their positioning with Bitcoin's multi-year structure. This behavior is also supported by other cyclical metrics like Realized Cap, which continues to mark new all-time highs in 2025.
The Bitcoin Yearly Percentage Trend is a tool that allows us to filter out daily market noise and reconnect with Bitcoin's true cyclical nature. It reminds us that beyond micro metrics and short-term candles, Bitcoin adheres to a structural rhythm that repeats with striking consistency: three years of expansion followed by one of compression.
This long-term lens helps investors stay grounded during short-term volatility and align better with Bitcoin’s historical performance.
By Carmelo Alemán, Verified On-Chain Analyst at Cryptoquant
Written by Carmelo_Alemán
