The Fed's next interest rate decision will be announced tomorrow, June 19, at 2 AM. Do you think Bitcoin will surge like in September 2024 or crash like on December 17, 2024? Can Bitcoin break 100,000 tomorrow, June 19? Can Bitcoin reach 92,000? Can Bitcoin reach the 80,000 range?

Individuals do not provide advice, let's see what deepseek says?

Deepseek provides a comprehensive analysis based on market dynamics and Federal Reserve policy logic, combined with Bitcoin's current price (106,430 USD) to give a clear judgment:

🔑 One, Interest Rate Decision Prediction: Hold Steady (Probability > 85%)

  1. Maintain interest rates unchanged: The Fed needs to weigh the decline in inflation (May CPI fell to 2.3%) against the uncertainty of Trump's tariff policy, prioritizing independence over political pressure.

  2. The likelihood of an interest rate cut is extremely low: if the dot plot maintains the expectation of ≤1 cut within the year, it will reinforce the hawkish stance; Trump's request for a cut of 100-200 basis points far exceeds the reasonable range.

  3. Rate hikes are completely ruled out: Economic weakness (Q1 GDP contracted by 0.3%) and the pressured bond market (U.S. Treasury yields approaching 5%) block the path for rate hikes.

Key Risk: If Powell mentions 'sticky inflation' or adjusts the interest rate dot plot, it may trigger market panic.

📉 Two, Bitcoin Trading Strategy Before the Resolution (Focus on Defense)

For the current price of $106,430, immediately execute the following three steps:

  1. Position Management:

    • Reduce at least 80% of spot positions, keep cash to cope with volatility;

    • Clear out leverage contracts or reduce to ≤3 times, to avoid liquidity gaps causing liquidation.

  2. Hedging Tools:

    • Buy gold ETF (like GLD) or 2-year U.S. Treasury bonds (TLT), as the hedging attribute has a negative correlation of -0.48 with Bitcoin;

    • Go long on the US Dollar Index (UUP), as the Fed's hawkish stance will boost the dollar.

  3. Stop Loss Settings:

    • Spot hard stop loss: $103,000 (-3.2% retracement defense line);

    • Observe the psychological level of $100,000; if broken, exit quickly.

📅 Three, Expected Timing for Interest Rate Cuts: September 2025 (Probability 65%)

Three conditions must be met to initiate interest rate cuts:

  1. Inflation continues to meet targets: Core PCE has been below 2.5% for three consecutive months (currently at 2.7%);

  2. Job market deteriorates: Unemployment rate exceeds 4.5% (currently 4.2%);

  3. Political risk materializes: Clear impact of Trump's tariff policy before the end of July.

If conditions are not met, interest rate cuts may be delayed until after the November elections.

₿ Four, Bitcoin Trend: Repeating the December 2024 Crash Pattern (80% Probability)

Probability of Key Price Levels Breaking

Historical Pattern Comparison

  • Similar to the crash on December 17, 2024: Daily decline may exceed 10%, primarily due to rising expectations of liquidity tightening;

  • Unlike the surge in September 2024: Currently, there is a lack of support from interest rate cut expectations, and ETF funds have been continuously flowing out.

⚠️ Five, Operation Guide (After Resolution Announcement)

Immediately adjust based on the resolution content:

  1. Hawkish Scenario (High Probability):

    • Short selling after Bitcoin breaks below 100,000, target after breaking 100,000 is 85,000;

    • Increase holdings in USD and short-term debt assets.

  2. Dovish Surprise (Low Probability):

    • If interest rates are cut by 25 basis points, quickly take profit at $110,000;

    • Be wary of a pullback after the 'good news is fully priced in'.

Ultimate Warning: Trump's 'certain measures' (like threatening to replace Powell) may trigger additional volatility, it is advised to avoid trading during sensitive event periods.

💎 Conclusion Overview

  • Interest Rate Decision: Definitely hold steady (probability > 85%), the dot plot determines market sentiment;

  • Bitcoin: The 100,000 mark must be broken, the target probability for the 80,000 range (80,000–89,999) is over half;

  • Core Strategy: Significantly reduce positions before the resolution, hedging is a priority to avoid naked long risk.

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