I. God-like prediction, will there be a flash crash below 108957 today?
Last night, on June 16, I emphasized in xxx: [Bitcoin needs a high above 107263, then it will truly reach the peak]. Indeed, it reached 107888 that evening, and it is expected to peak below 108957! I said it! Everyone take screenshots as proof!
Ethereum's resistance level is 2658.1, with today's high at 2657.9, an error of 0.2, meeting expectations!
The resistance level given by Sol is 157.61, with a high of 157.91, an error of 0.3, meeting expectations!
All the analysis content in this article was analyzed yesterday, June 16, and I first shared it in xxx; by the time you see it, it is already 8:00 AM on June 17. No one looked at the posts last night, and posting on a schedule in the morning will allow more people to see it; additionally, posting too frequently in a day can easily be restricted, so all posts are changed to scheduled releases. For real-time updates, please go to xxx. [Note: Analysis content has timeliness; if the wave pattern changes, please be flexible. Once significant changes occur in the market, I will inform you in a timely manner in xxx; recently xxx updates more than 5 rounds a day to ensure the accuracy of movement trajectories, points, and time predictions]
Why can I be so precise? As long as you understand a bit about Fibonacci retracement of 0.5, 0.618, and 0.8, you can also catch the same points as I do.
So the key question is, has it peaked? The two segments of this price action are basically consistent, and I personally think it will be bearish today, June 17! It will reach 98000-100000 on June 19-21.
Yesterday's article (Bitcoin's $100,000 showdown moment: will it crash to 98000-100000 on the 17th, 19th-21st?) has already clearly stated: it will crash to 98000-100000 on the 17th, 19th-21st! Today is the 17th; what do you think? Will it reach 98000-100000 on June 19-21? Please leave your thoughts in the comments!
II. Bitcoin market analysis.
[Newbie Learning Points Community Bitcoin Market Analysis 20250616 22:53]
（1）The 1-hour upgrade level three-phase rise has been upgraded to the 4-hour upgrade level three-phase rise.
（2）The rebound resistance is in the range of 107525-107888.69-108957, with extremes at 108957.
Pay attention to the suppression of two black Gann angle lines and a red Gann angle line.
As long as it effectively receives 108957 or below, there is no possibility of a B rebound.
Below 108957, it must peak! I said it!
（3）The small-scale 5 waves already show signs of peaking. Pay attention to when the 15-minute MACD and 30-minute MACD diverge + death cross again; after this occurs, you can preliminarily judge the peak.
This is key!
（4）When the 1-hour MACD shows divergence + death cross, it can be further determined that the rise has ended. When the 4-hour MACD shows a death cross, it finally confirms the end of the rebound.
（5）June 17 is the next high peak of the Gann turning point, not a low point. The previous interpretation as a low point is incorrect!
I am very confident that we will reach 98000-100000 on June 19-21.
III. Ethereum market analysis.
[Newbie Learning Points Community Ethereum Market Analysis 20250616 23:30]
（1）On June 10, I predicted that Ethereum would rebound at least to 2850 (which has been realized), insisting that [Ethereum's breakout is exactly the same as its movement from January 3 to January 7, and according to the rules, it pulled back for 2-3 days, which further reinforced my expectation of a peak around June 11-12].
（2）Ethereum has been falling since the highest point of 2879.22, and the internal structure conforms to the wxyxz adjustment wave, currently at the end of the X wave.
（3）The resistance level given by Ethereum in xxx is 2658.1, with today's high at 2657.9, an error of 0.2, meeting expectations!
（4）The Y wave is expected to drop to 2215.66-2304. The downward process will be supported by the blue Gann angle line and the green Gann angle line, while facing resistance from the purple-red Gann angle line.
（5）In August, it will fall to 1750-1833-1955.63.
IV. What do you think of Metaplanet's increase in Bitcoin holdings?
Japanese listed company Metaplanet increased its holdings by 1112 BTC, bringing the total to 10000 BTC. The average price is about 94697 dollars, worth about 1.058 billion dollars. Does this mean that institutions are still confident about Bitcoin's long-term trend? What do you think of their strategy of 'high-level accumulation'?
Did Metaplanet fomo? Will they be trapped? Are they suckers or smart people, or are they just infinite bullets?
Based on Metaplanet's public operations and market background analysis:
（1）Institutions remain strongly confident in Bitcoin in the long term.
Strategic goals are clear.
Metaplanet announced as early as the beginning of 2025 that it plans to increase its Bitcoin holdings to 10,000 coins. This increase is the execution of a predetermined strategy rather than a temporary decision. The company's CEO clearly stated that this move is to expand its influence within the Bitcoin ecosystem.Institutional funds continue to flow in.
In June 2025, Bitcoin ETF recorded a single-day net inflow of $386 million, institutional holdings continue to increase, and the holding mode returning indicates the market's optimism about long-term trends. The large-scale holdings of listed companies like MicroStrategy (nearly 600,000 BTC) also confirm this trend.The macro environment supports.
The Federal Reserve's policy trends (such as expectations for interest rate cuts) and the increasing correlation between Bitcoin and gold (reaching 0.62 in 2025) strengthen its positioning as an anti-inflation asset.
（2）Analysis of the rationality of the 'high-level accumulation' strategy.
（3）Will Metaplanet be trapped? — Key data calculations.
Margin of safety: Current average price 94,697 (total cost 947 million), calculated based on the price of 94,697 (total cost 947 million) on June 12, 2025, the floating profit is about 14% (17). Even if the price falls back to 86,506 (April average price), it is still higher than its historical average cost of 86,506 (April average price).
Margin of liquidation: Key support levels are 105,000 (institutional psychological level) and 105,000 (institutional psychological level) and 102,500 (technical support), with a buffer space of about 3%-6% from the current price.
Return resilience: Since 2025, the investment return rate has reached 266.1%, securing ample profits.
（4）Are they 'suckers' or 'smart people'?
Strategic foresight.:
Imitating MicroStrategy's 'bond financing + hoarding coins' model, its stock price rose by 2629% in 2024 due to this strategy, becoming Japan's best-performing stock, proving that the market recognizes its model.Timing:
In April, they increased holdings at 97,490, in May at 97,490, and in May at 99,357 (after exchange rate conversion), all before breaking through key resistance levels, showing precise timing ability.Not 'infinite bullets'.:
Financing relies on the capital market (such as this $210 million bond), but the company's market value is only $800 million (2024 data), so its financing capacity should be continuously monitored.
Conclusion
Metaplanet's increase in holdings is a long-term layout of mature institutions rather than FOMO (fear of missing out). Its core strategy is:
① Utilize the weak yen and low-cost bonds to expand exposure to Bitcoin;
② Bet on Bitcoin's 'digital gold' attribute to counter global currency depreciation;
③ Obtain strategic dividends through large-scale holdings. Although there are risks of short-term price fluctuations, the deep floating profit cushion, clear strategic goals, and institutional fund trends make it closer to 'smart money' rather than suckers.
Finally, I want to remind you that when publicly listed companies loudly announce their increase in cryptocurrency holdings, the market often interprets this as a long-term investment in the blockchain ecosystem. However, the reality is often more utilitarian — these companies essentially replicate a type of securitized operation model: purchasing Bitcoin and other assets in the open market to drive up stock prices, cashing out profits in the secondary market, and trying to use book profits to cover operational dilemmas. The capital operation case of MicroStrategy has already formed a demonstration effect, and its model of deep binding between stock prices and Bitcoin holdings is prompting more listed companies to imitate.
The sustainability of this strategy is questionable. When MicroStrategy is treated as an 'exception', the market assigns it a scarcity premium; but as followers surge, the essence of the model gradually reveals itself: it is merely transplanting traditional capital games into the crypto asset track. When the number of participants exceeds, leading to liquidity dilution, the entire system will face value reconstruction, and it may even backfire on the instigator. Recently, multiple follower companies have shown significant divergence between their stock prices and the value of the cryptocurrencies they hold, validating the market's recognition mechanism for pseudo-innovation.
Metaplanet's increase in Bitcoin holdings does not mean that the altcoin season is coming. For retail investors, we cannot learn from Metaplanet's approach because we are not institutions and are in a weaker position; only by avoiding risk can we stay on the path of sustainable profit! We are not infinite bullets! Even a small loss can lead to a month of crying!
V. How to learn technical analysis and copy homework?
Recently, my control over details has been incredibly precise! Why can I consistently boast about my successes? You can read my original articles (sharing my predictions of the peak on May 23, the next high on June 2, the bottom of 100718 on June 6, the peak on June 11, and the crash on June 17! Remember to copy homework!) Study well, and you too can boast like others!
Finally, I suggest everyone study well the [high win-rate trading model], [wave theory], [Chan theory], [Gann theory], [Wyckoff method] that I highlighted, so that your boasting ability will be even higher!
For those doing ultra-short-term trading, please consciously read my excellent tutorial articles on self-media (a high win-rate left-side spot trading model (Part 1)).
To strike iron, one must be strong oneself; only by enhancing cognition can one successfully traverse through bull and bear markets. We focus on sharing knowledge, cultivating independent thinking, learning and accumulating in bear markets, and becoming someone else's dreams in bull markets. We welcome like-minded individuals who agree with the values of the Newbie Learning Points Community and are willing to learn and cultivate independent thinking abilities; only when you turn this knowledge and skills into your own accumulation can you have the ability to think independently and avoid becoming a green leek!$BTC