Opening strike
The results of the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting early this morning are out—another familiar script: interest rates remain unchanged at 4.25%-4.5%, but the dot plot threw a bucket of cold water on the market. The originally expected two interest rate cuts this year have been slashed to just one, and dreaming of a rate cut in 2025? Wake up, Powell, this old fox never intended to sweeten the market!
Core result: Hawks remain steady, interest rate cut expectations halved.
Interest rate decision: Maintaining the 4.25%-4.5% range for the third consecutive time, as expected but with no surprises.
Dot plot disaster: The 2025 interest rate cut expectation shrank from 50 basis points (twice) to 25 basis points (once), the script for a 75 basis points cut in 2026 remains unchanged. Even harsher, 11 out of 19 committee members believe there will be at most one cut this year, with 8 even saying 'not a single cut at all.'
Economic forecast: GDP growth rate revised down from 1.7% to 1.4%, while inflation expectations revised up—core PCE surged from 2.8% to 3.1%, clearly indicating that stagflation risks cannot be contained.
Market reaction: The US dollar index suddenly rose by 0.8%, BTC promptly fell below $61,000.
Powell's press conference: Stubbornly tough, but with hidden messages.
This old man had a hawkish demeanor throughout, but there are three key pieces of information to savor:
"Not in a hurry to cut interest rates": The original statement was 'Policy has been moderately restrictive, but inflation is still high', which translates to 'Retail investors, don't dream.'
"Tariffs are an inflation bomb": Directly naming Trump's tariff policy, suggesting that once inventory is digested, inflation may explode again.
"The labor market is still strong": Unemployment rate stuck at 4.2%, non-farm data exceeds expectations, interest rate cut? No excuses.
Impact on the crypto sphere: Liquidity expectations have collapsed, but don't panic!
Short-term bearish: Delay in interest rate cuts = Tightening of US dollar liquidity, especially hurting altcoins. High beta assets like XRP and SOL may drop another 10%-15%.
Long-term game:
ETF hedging: If the Grayscale XRP ETF is approved (Bitwise CEO hinted at submitting a proposal in Q3), it could offset some liquidity pressure.
Technical support: The weekly MA200 for BTC ($58,000) is a critical line; if it breaks, stop loss is necessary; holding means an opportunity to increase positions.
Black swan bet: If the unemployment rate suddenly spikes to 4.5% in September, interest rate cut expectations may reverse; it's more cost-effective to layout options in advance.
Operation guide: Don't be cannon fodder, enter with a knife.
Position control: Don't exceed 50% in spot holdings, leave enough USDT for right-side signals.
Hedging strategy: Buy BTC quarterly contracts + short XRP/USDT to hedge against systemic risks.
Event-driven: Keep a close watch on July CPI data and August non-farm data, as these two figures will directly determine whether there will be an interest rate cut in September.
After the Federal Reserve's decision, the on-chain reserves of stablecoin USDC surged by $2 billion, and smart money has started to bottom-fish.
Remember, a bull market dies from consensus and is born from despair—panic-stricken retail investors are the fuel for the rally in the second half of the year.
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