1. The fundamentals are changing rapidly

(1) Geopolitical conflicts intensify, crypto assets suffer setbacks

This morning at 6 o'clock, explosions were reported in Tehran, the capital of Iran, as the conflict between Iran and the U.S. significantly escalated. This sudden event instantly impacted global financial markets, with high-risk assets being the first to suffer. Funds quickly flocked to traditional safe havens, with gold prices jumping to $1950 per ounce, while the short end of the U.S. Treasury yield curve fell and the yen briefly broke through the 138 mark against the dollar. The cryptocurrency market was also not spared; mainstream coins like Bitcoin and Ethereum saw sharp declines, with Bitcoin dropping nearly $500 within half an hour. The 'digital gold' safe-haven property of crypto assets has once again come under widespread scrutiny amid this shock. The spillover effects of geopolitical conflicts are profoundly influencing the short-term trends of cryptocurrencies, significantly increasing uncertainty.

(2) Goldman Sachs predicts: Bank of Japan holds steady

Goldman Sachs released its latest macroeconomic report, predicting the direction of the Bank of Japan's monetary policy, believing that in the foreseeable short term, the Bank of Japan will maintain its current monetary policy stance and continue to hold steady, with the next interest rate hike likely postponed until next year. As the world's third-largest economy, Japan's monetary policy has a significant impact on global financial market liquidity. Against the backdrop of a diverging global economic recovery and frequent geopolitical risks, the Bank of Japan's cautious attitude means that the global liquidity landscape will not experience significant changes in the short term due to Japan, and the cryptocurrency market is also unlikely to gain additional liquidity support from adjustments in Japanese monetary policy, continuing to navigate within the current macro environment.

(3) SEC delays decision on Ethereum ETF

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) announced the delay of its decision on the staking options for the Franklin spot Ethereum ETF. This news instantly stirred waves in the Ethereum and related ETF markets. In the short term, market uncertainty has significantly increased, causing the price of Ethereum to drop by 2%, and the subscription and redemption volumes of related ETF products have also shown fluctuations. Institutional investors, facing the SEC's hesitant attitude, have chosen to remain on the sidelines, significantly decreasing their risk appetite. However, from a long-term perspective, if the SEC ultimately approves the staking options, the Ethereum ecosystem will usher in new development opportunities. New passive income channels will attract a large influx of institutional funds, injecting long-term stable liquidity into the market, driving Ethereum prices upward and reshaping the market landscape.

(1) BTC: Intense competition between bulls and bears, watch key ranges

Yesterday's analysis clearly pointed out that the unstable factors of current geopolitical conflicts are the core variables of the market, significantly diminishing the sustainability of market trends, with very little profit effect from spot investments. The Bitcoin daily chart yesterday showed that the price once surged to around $109,000, but the bulls failed to effectively hold their ground, subsequently facing a fierce counterattack from the bears. This morning, affected by the escalation of geopolitical conflicts, the price quickly fell like a waterfall, dropping more than three thousand points within just a few hours, and the daily line ultimately closed with a long upper shadow bullish candle. However, it is worth noting that the daily closing price is still above the moving average system, and it has closed bullish for three consecutive days, with the K-line overall showing an upward turning trend, suggesting that bullish strength has not completely exhausted, and there is still a possibility of another attempt to challenge the pressure zone of $109,000 - $110,000.


From the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin started a steady rise yesterday morning, maintaining an upward trend for 24 hours. However, this morning a large bearish candle broke the upward rhythm, but it was quickly followed by a sharp rebound that formed a bullish candle, indicating that the overall smaller-level upward trend has not been completely damaged. During the Asian trading session, it is expected that the price may continue to slightly rise. In terms of daily operations, investors should closely monitor the strong resistance at the $109,000 - $110,000 position above; if unable to effectively break through, a price retracement is likely; below, focus on the support at the $106,000 - $105,000 position, as a break below could trigger a new round of decline.

(2) ETH: Short-term pressure, long-term trend unchanged

The Ethereum daily chart shows a surge followed by a retreat, closing with a long upper shadow bearish candle. This K-line pattern clearly indicates that in the current market environment, the short-term bulls faced strong resistance when attempting to break through the upper pressure level, and the market lacks sufficient confidence in the breakout. In the absence of significant positive news catalysts, such as the approval of staking ETFs, it will be difficult for Ethereum to directly break upward in the short term; a consolidation or retest of support levels will likely become a high-probability event. However, from a long-term perspective, the price trend of Ethereum remains well above the ascending blue trend line, indicating that its long-term upward trend has not been materially damaged, and the current adjustment falls within the range of a healthy correction.


On the 4-hour chart, a large bearish candle this morning has almost completely reversed yesterday's gains. Although the price has rebounded somewhat, during the rise yesterday, the price consolidated for a long time within the $2630 - $2660 range, which has created significant resistance for the current rebound. In daily operations, investors can consider the $2630 - $2660 position above as a key resistance level; if the price cannot effectively break through this range, the rebound potential will be very limited; below, focus on the support at the $2580 - $2550 position, as further declines could bring the $2500 level into play as an important bottom support area.

(3) Altcoins: Weak performance under high risk

From recent market performance, it is apparent that during the market correction, the decline in Ethereum and altcoins has been significantly greater than that of Bitcoin. This is mainly due to the geopolitical conflict exacerbating market risk aversion, with high-risk altcoins being ruthlessly abandoned by market funds and struggling to gain attention. The current rebound in altcoins not only lacks sustainability but also has very low profitability. Even if investors seize brief rebound opportunities, the profits are difficult to secure, while facing considerable retracement risks. In such a market environment, the best strategy is undoubtedly to wait and see, avoiding blind chasing of price increases (FOMO). Only when geopolitical conflicts gradually ease, and market liquidity significantly improves, can the altcoin market hope to welcome genuine investment opportunities, allowing investors to better grasp market rhythms.


The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and caution is needed when entering; this is a personal opinion and not advice, for sharing purposes only.#加密市场反弹