One, Triple fundamental pressures on the market

Altcoin crisis continues to escalate
Following the ACT collapse two months ago, ZKJ flashed crash at 11 PM on the 14th, plummeting 80% in one hour. On-chain data shows that whales withdrew $5.32 million in liquidity, coupled with the unlocking of 2 million tokens (accounting for 18% of the circulating supply), triggering a panic sell-off. This incident exposes the vulnerability of small market cap project incentive mechanisms and the fatal flaw of insufficient on-chain depth; retail investors need to beware of the 'high-yield mining + low lock-up' trap.

Unlocking tide warning intensifies panic
This week popular tokens like ZK and ARB will face significant unlocks:

ZK (6.15) unlocks 12 million tokens (market cap $24 million)

ARB (6.17) unlocks 8.9 million tokens (market cap $10.68 million)
Historical data shows that the average drop in token prices 72 hours before unlocking is 7.3%, significantly increasing liquidity withdrawal risk.

Geopolitical conflicts impact risk appetite
The escalation of the Israel-Palestine conflict has triggered global risk aversion, and cryptocurrencies, as high-risk assets, are at the forefront: the correlation between Bitcoin and gold has dropped to 0.31, undermining its 'digital gold' attribute; funds are flowing into the US dollar (DXY rises to 103.8) and crude oil (Brent crude surpasses $85/barrel). If the conflict spreads to the Middle East oil-producing regions, it may indirectly benefit cryptocurrencies through inflation expectations, but short-term pressure is intensifying.

Two, BTC: $103,500 is the key defensive line

Weekly level: Long upper shadow bearish candle, breaking below the 7-week moving average ($105,800), creating a new two-month low. Although the maturity of US Treasuries starting from the 17th theoretically releases liquidity, geopolitical risks may weaken fund inflows. Daily level: Affected by the conflict, it dipped to $103,000, forming a 'three needles bottom' pattern, with the 200-day moving average ($102,500) as the last line of defense. Strong resistance at $106,500 (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement level); a significant volume breakthrough is needed to reverse the bearish trend. 4-hour level: Rebound volume shrank by 42%, showing caution in bottom fishing. Pay attention to the $106,500-$107,500 resistance and $104,500-$103,500 support; a break below requires vigilance for accelerated declines.

Three, ETH: $2,500 support awaits testing

Weekly level: Long upper shadow small bullish candle, relying on the 5-week moving average ($2,550) for oscillation; the upward trend remains unchanged, but momentum is diminishing. Daily level: After four consecutive bearish candles, it stabilized in the $2,480-$2,500 range, which is a densely traded area since December 2024. Volume has shrunk to an average of 60%, beware of 'low volume meets low price' leading to a trend change. 4-hour level: After a double bottom, it closed with a small bullish candle, but RSI has not broken the 50 midline, limiting the rebound height. The key resistance is at $2,600 (Bollinger middle band), with critical support at $2,530-$2,500 that requires close attention.

Four, Altcoin Strategy: Risk aversion is paramount, waiting for a turning point

Unlocking token risk control: Holders of unlocking tokens are advised to reduce positions by 50% 48 hours before unlocking, with the remaining position set to a 15% stop-loss; pay attention to the opportunity of 'bad news already priced in' after unlocking, but judgment should be based on on-chain capital flow. Market status: The expectation for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates has been postponed to Q4, combined with risk aversion, high-risk altcoins are unlikely to have sustained trends. Short-term opportunities exist only in the Coinbase listing concept (Sonic, JTO) and regulatory beneficiaries (COMP, MKR). Position management: Mainstream coins (BTC+ETH) account for 50-60%, adding to positions on dips; altcoin positions reduced to below 20%, participating only in blue chips; retain 30% cash to deal with black swan events, waiting for the liquidity turning point after the maturity of US Treasuries in late June.

Risk Warning: If Brent crude surpasses $95/barrel, global markets may experience 'liquidity withdrawal', leading cryptocurrencies and US stocks to decline in sync. Strictly implement stop-loss measures; if BTC falls below $102,500 or ETH below $2,450, decisively reduce positions. (The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, exercise caution when entering; this is a personal view, not advice, for sharing only)#ZKJ