Currently still this view 17 to 98000-100000, around the 17th, it doesn't have to be the 17th, there may be an error of 1-3 days possible.

Trump Media (TMTG) recently received SEC approval for a $2.3 billion Bitcoin treasury transaction and Bitcoin ETF application, marking further integration of cryptocurrency with the traditional financial system. Could this initiative become the key catalyst for pushing Bitcoin prices beyond the historical high of $111,980? Regardless, this will bring risks of deepening ties between the market and politics.

Firstly, TMTG's Bitcoin layout may inject strong momentum into the market. If the $2.3 billion Bitcoin treasury is executed for purchase, it will signal a significant influx of institutional funds. Previously, the continuous inflow of funds into the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF has provided solid support for the market, and if TMTG's ETF is approved, it will further reduce the participation threshold for ordinary investors, attracting more funds. In addition, the recent Bitcoin Bill proposed by the Trump administration and the national strategic reserve plan (targeting 200,000 BTC) may create long-term policy benefits if smoothly advanced, strengthening bullish market expectations.

However, this process is highly dependent on political variables and carries significant uncertainty. TMTG's purchasing plan has not yet clarified an execution timeline; if funds are delayed, the market may correct due to unmet expectations. Moreover, the SEC's approval cycle for ETFs is lengthy, and if regulatory attitudes tighten, it could dampen market enthusiasm. Additionally, Bitcoin prices are closely linked to Trump's political prospects; if his approval ratings fluctuate or policy commitments are not fulfilled, market sentiment could swiftly reverse.

In summary, whether Bitcoin can break through $111,980 depends on three factors: the actual pace of TMTG's capital acquisition, the progress of ETF approvals, and the advancement of Trump's policies. In the short term, market sentiment and policy expectations may support prices from falling significantly, but breaking through $111,980 remains challenging, and long-term stability will still need to be observed based on the sustainability of fund inflows. Investors should closely monitor relevant developments while being wary of market volatility risks caused by policy reversals.

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