This past week in the crypto market has been quite thrilling: Bitcoin first surged, then plummeted, as if riding a high-speed roller coaster. Many people weren’t able to react in time and were thrown off the ride.
The trigger for this wave of decline was the sudden change in the Middle East situation, leading to a significant drop in the U.S. stock market, while the crypto market is no longer the 'independent market' it once was and is now completely linked to U.S. stocks. When the wind blows from the Beautiful Country, the crypto market directly experiences turbulence.
But please stay calm: this is not the end of a bull market, but a typical 'cleansing consolidation period' within the bull market.
BTC: Consolidation is just a means, the trend is still within the broader picture.
The key support range for Bitcoin has not been broken yet, and the overall structure is still operating within a consolidation box. Especially:
The weekly chart has closed with two consecutive 'doji' candles, which is a clear signal of market hesitation;
For the past four weeks, the price has been oscillating around the central axis, indicating that the big players have not made a clear statement;
The daily trend is in a stalemate state of 'not breaking down, not rising up.'
But this does not mean the market is turning bearish; rather, it indicates that the direction is brewing, waiting for an event-driven explosion.
The current key support is the $100,000 mark. If this holds, this adjustment will be a bullish washout; if it breaks, watch for the lower technical support levels of 97,600 and 93,000 to respond in batches.
[Understanding the Big Picture: It’s not that the coins are weak, but that emotions are tense + there’s a shortage of Zichan]
The current market environment is particularly like 'the pool is drying up': the financial pool is shrinking, and every little movement will amplify into violent fluctuations. Your feeling that the market is difficult to navigate is not an illusion, but a reflection of the extremely limited resources at this stage, where capital is competing fiercely.
At this time, the only ones still active are BTC spot holders and short-term players;
Other operating models are generally 'ineffective'; strategies that previously relied on sentiment and trends cannot drive the market at all now.
This kind of market relies not on 'smartness' but on 'patience + tactical discipline.'
[This week's focus: three key things]
U.S. stock market trends: The crypto market still follows closely, especially whether tech stocks pull back directly impacts sentiment;
Middle East situation updates: This is a chain reaction; once the situation escalates, it will impact risk appetite in the short term;
June 19th Federal Reserve meeting: This could be a key point for a short-term directional reversal, especially beware of a 'drop first, rise later' headwind surprise.
If your trading style is relatively conservative, you can wait for these three time points to make a decision. Position holders should pay attention to breakout points to take profits or hedge in a timely manner.
[ETH: Underestimated and brewing for a breakout; the key is to wait for BTC to ignite.]
Although ETH has not moved aggressively this round, the overall structure remains stable and has not broken the long-term consolidation range or gone out of control. More importantly, a potential major benefit has been seriously underestimated:
The growth rate of ETF demand for ETH has even exceeded that of BTC, especially after U.S. regulators released expectations for relaxing staking yields, making ETH increasingly resemble an asset with 'dividend yields.'
This is very attractive to institutions.
ETFs have a strong motivation to drive the market up, because the larger the staking volume, the higher their 'risk-free return';
Once the market starts, institutions may collectively 'create FOMO' to amplify the upward momentum, and ETH may directly transform from sideways to a leader.
So don’t be deceived by ETH's current calm; once BTC strengthens, ETH will definitely be among the first to surge.
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