I. The unlocking of FTN, valued at approximately $88.8 million, will occur next week, accounting for 2.0% of the total supply.
Next week, five cryptocurrency projects will unlock tokens, releasing a total value of approximately $260 million.
On June 16, ARB unlocked approximately 93.12 million tokens (about $30.55 million, accounting for 1.9% of the circulating supply), accounting for 0.931% of the total supply.
On June 17, ZK unlocked approximately 770 million tokens (about $39.17 million, accounting for 20.9% of the circulating supply), accounting for 3.66% of the total supply.
On June 18, QAI unlocked approximately 560,000 tokens (about $5.474 million), accounting for 5.657% of the total supply.
On June 20, ZRO unlocked approximately 25.7 million tokens (about $49.87 million, accounting for 20.9% of the circulating supply), accounting for 2.571% of the total supply.
On June 21, FTN will unlock approximately 20 million tokens (about $88.8 million, accounting for 4.66% of the circulating supply, with a relatively mature distribution in the early stage), accounting for 2.0% of the total supply.
II. Historical and logical perspective: How does unlocking disturb the market?
Supply surge → Selling pressure concentrated. A large one-time release of tokens, especially those with over 20% cliff unlocking, like ZK and ZRO, is very likely to trigger a cash-out tide in the core chain.
Short-term price fluctuations, market expectations are unmet. Before the cliff unlock, there was a logic of 'anticipatory buying,' but after the unlock starts, the realization of expectations instead triggers sell-offs.
Significant differences in projects themselves: Although FTN has a large unlock, its price remains relatively strong, reflecting market expectation discrepancies.
III. Market impact and trend judgment this week
1. Mainstream coin risk exposure and adjustment pressure
ZK and ZRO: A high proportion of supply entering the market has caused a price adjustment of 7-10%.
ARB, ID, and other mid-stream tokens: The unlocking pressure is moderate, but it will still have an impact on sentiment.
2. Altcoins are under pressure across the board, with capital retreating or concentrating in BTC/ETH.
In the wave of unlocking, small coins face the risk of pressured reset.
Some capital may shift to mainstream assets with deep liquidity and strong institutional participation, such as BTC and ETH, provided the macro environment supports it.
3. Overall market volatility has intensified, and liquidity differentiation is evident.
Unlocking may trigger frequent profit-taking/stop-loss triggers and precautionary liquidations.
High liquidity projects (like FTN) can still maintain relative stability, while low liquidity projects carry higher risks.
IV. Strategy suggestions: Responding to this week's unlocking wave.
Short-term traders: Avoid high leverage, set clear stop-losses before and after unlocking, and pay attention to on-chain liquidity/hot wallet dynamics.
Medium to long-term investors: For strong fundamentals, it is advisable to accumulate on dips; however, one should avoid high-risk assets with a high proportion of cliff unlocking.
Fund managers: Prevent leverage and liquidity squeezes; moderately diversify risks into mainstream assets (BTC/ETH) and low-unlock projects.
V. Outlook and Summary
The unlock wave is a large 'catalyst' for market supply and demand fluctuations, easily causing price shocks in the short term, but future trends will be determined by capital allocation logic.
Mainstream assets may become a safe haven for capital, while high-unlock small coins may face structural adjustments.
Continuously monitoring the flow of on-chain issuers and profit-taking parties is crucial: If the open market does not show obvious sell-offs, a rapid price drop indicates that arbitrage/cash-out is occurring.
Along with the synchronized fluctuations of the Federal Reserve's policies and the macro capital environment, this week may be a 'market pricing window.' It is advisable to wait for the washout and liquidation before patiently laying out core assets in the medium to long term.