đ˘Polymarket Prediction Market Snapshotđ¤Ż
As of now, Polymarket users are pricing in a 98% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep rates unchanged at the upcoming FOMC meeting scheduled for Wednesday, JuneâŻ18,âŻ2025 ďżź.
đ What this means
⢠Prediction markets vs. futures markets: Polymarketâa decentralized crypto-based prediction platformâshows an overwhelming consensus among its users that there will be no rate cut on JuneâŻ18 ďżź.
⢠Mainstream signals align: Official sources like CMEâŻFedWatch and analysts are also expecting a rate pause at this meeting ďżź.
đ§ Why markets expect no change
1. Inflation remains above target: The Fedâs preferred PCE inflation gauge continues to hover above 2%, keeping officials cautious.
2. Strong labour market: Employment data remains robust, reducing pressure for immediate rate cuts.
3. Fedâs own messaging: Public statements from Fed officials have emphasized patience and data reliance before any monetary easing.
đ What to watch next
⢠The official June 18 FOMC announcement and accompanying dot-plot projections.
⢠Economic updates until thenâmonthly inflation and employment data in particular.
⢠How forward guidance shapes markets toward July or later as potential timeline for rate cuts.
đĄ Bottom line
Polymarketâs estimate reflects widespread sentiment: a rate cut this Wednesday is considered extremely unlikely. The Fed appears intent on maintaining current rates and waiting for clearer signs from economic data before easing its stance.