fomc

What began as a calm and uneventful Federal Reserve day on August 1 quickly escalated into a full-blown geopolitical and economic disruption. Here’s what unfolded — and why markets are now on high alert 👇
📊 Q2 U.S. GDP exceeded expectations at +3.0%
🏦 The Fed held interest rates steady, as anticipated
🗣️ Chair Powell warned: “Tariff driven inflation is just getting started. We’re staying patient.”
Markets remained steady… until Trump took the stage and flipped the script entirely 🔥
🔻 Trade Bombshells Dropped by Trump:
🇧🇷 40% tariff on Brazilian imports
🔌 50% tariff on all semi-finished copper
🇰🇷 $350B trade pact with South Korea — includes $100B LNG + 15% tariffs
🇮🇳 25% tariff on India, citing ties with Russia
💣 Called Russia and India “dead economies”
🧱 Declared BRICS a threat to the U.S. dollar
🐉 Hinted at a sweeping China trade deal incoming
📉 What started as a routine FOMC day has now become a preview of a global trade war.
🔍 Markets are reacting.
💱 Currency pairs are volatile.
🪙 Bitcoin and crypto markets are watching closely.
📆 August 1 is now a critical turning point for global markets.
🧠 Stay tuned. This is just the beginning.
#TrumpTariffs #Fed #fomc #Cryptowatch $BTC $BNB #BinanceSquare

(Governor Christopher J. Waller)

At the most recent Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, I dissented because I concluded that cutting the policy rate by 25 basis points was the appropriate stance of policy. In a speech I gave July 17, I laid out the case for cutting the policy rate at the July FOMC meeting and my views have not changed since then. I will recap the reasons for doing so.
First, tariffs are one-off increases in the price level and do not cause inflation beyond a temporary increase. Standard central banking practice is to "look through" such price-level effects as long as inflation expectations are anchored, which they are.
Second, a host of data argues that monetary policy should now be close to neutral, not restrictive. Real gross domestic product (GDP) growth was 1.2 percent in the first half of this year and is expected to remain soft for the rest of 2025, much lower than the median of FOMC participants' estimates of longer-run GDP growth. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is 4.1 percent, near the Committee's longer-run estimate, and total inflation is close to our target at just slightly above 2 percent if we put aside tariff effects that I believe will be temporary. Taken together, the data imply the policy rate should be around neutral, which the median FOMC participant estimates is 3 percent, and not where we are—1.25 to 1.50 percentage points above 3 percent.
My final reason to favor a cut now is that while the labor market looks fine on the surface, once we account for expected data revisions, private-sector payroll growth is near stall speed, and other data suggest that the downside risks to the labor market have increased. With underlying inflation near target and the upside risks to inflation limited, we should not wait until the labor market deteriorates before we cut the policy rate.
I fully respect the views of my colleagues on the FOMC that suggest we need to take a "wait and see" approach regarding tariffs' effects on inflation. There is nothing wrong about having different views about how to interpret incoming data and using different economic arguments to predict how tariffs will impact the economy. These differences are a sign of a healthy and robust policy discussion.
But, I believe that the wait and see approach is overly cautious, and, in my opinion, does not properly balance the risks to the outlook and could lead to policy falling behind the curve. The price effects from tariffs have been small so far, and since we will likely not get clarity on tariff levels or their ultimate impact on the economy over the course of the next several months, it is possible that the labor market falters before that clarity is obtained—if it ever is obtained. When labor markets turn, they often turn fast. If we find ourselves needing to support the economy, waiting may unduly delay moving toward appropriate policy.
My position does not mean I believe the FOMC should reduce the policy rate along a predetermined path. We can cut now and see how the data evolves. If the tariff effects do not lead to a major shock to inflation, the Committee can continue reducing the rate at a moderate pace. If we do get significant upside surprises to inflation and employment, we can pause. But I see no reason that we should hold the policy rate at its current level and risk a sudden decline in the labor market.

#fomc

As of July 31, 2025, Bitcoin is trading around $115,957 USD, showing a 2% drop over the past 24 hours after hitting an intraday high of $118,891 and a low of $114,791 .

Following the recent FOMC meeting, the Fed held rates at 4.25%–4.50%, with dissent from two governors favoring rate cuts. This has sparked uncertainty about policy direction, causing market hesitation .

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🧠 Why This Monthly Close Matters

Today marks the end of July, and Bitcoin faces critical support around $116K–$117K.

If Bitcoin closes above $118K – $120K, technical analysts expect a breakout toward $125K–$140K .

Close below $116K, and we could revisit support zones near $114K — market stability is fragile .

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🔔 Additional Market Signals

Institutional activity is increasing: MicroStrategy reported a $14B gain, holding over 597,000 BTC, while whale accumulation rose ~1% of total supply .

Ethereum (ETH) is outperforming, benefiting from ETF inflows—trading near $3,770 with XRP and SOL showing modest strength .

👊 What Should Traders Do?

1. Track the monthly candlestick close — key time frame could set the next leg.

2. Avoid over-leveraging, especially if price dips into $114K–$116K support.

3. Set price alerts for BTC, ETH, and high-volume altcoins.

4. Expect continuation or reversal post-close — plan trades accordingly.

📣 Your Take?

Will Bitcoin close strong above $117K–$118K and spark a rally?
👇 Drop your view below and discuss —
✅ Like, follow & share for real-time crypto insights.

🔗 $BTC
$ETH
$SOL #MonthlyClose #Monthly #fomc #BTC走势分析 #bitcoin

At its July meeting, the U.S. central bank kept interest rates unchanged, reaffirming its wait-and-see approach despite mounting pressure from Donald Trump. Fed Chair Jerome Powell maintained a cautious tone, triggering unease among investors and the crypto community.

Fifth Straight Hold, But Internal Fed Split Emerges
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to maintain the interest rate at 4.25% to 4.5%, marking the fifth consecutive meeting with no change.
However, the decision revealed internal disagreement. Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman, both Trump appointees, voted for a 25-basis-point cut, citing strong GDP and macroeconomic performance. Still, the final vote was 9–2 in favor of holding steady.
The Fed remains concerned about the potential consequences of Trump’s tariffs, particularly the new 25% duty on India and the revised trade deal with South Korea.

Trump Pushes for Cuts, Powell Holds the Line
Trump has repeatedly claimed that each additional rate point costs the U.S. $365 billion, insisting that inflation is under control and rates should fall. But Powell pushed back:
“Cutting rates too early could undermine inflation control, while waiting too long could hurt the labor market.”
While he acknowledged slowing housing activity and moderately elevated inflation, Powell emphasized that no decision has been made for September. Nevertheless, the market remains hopeful: CME FedWatch shows a 45.2% probability of a rate cut in September and 48.7% in October.

Trump, in his own briefing, mentioned hearing about “changes being prepared for September,” stoking further speculation.

Markets Disappointed — Stocks and Crypto Slide
The Fed’s decision and Powell’s cautious rhetoric disappointed Wall Street:

🔹 S&P 500 dropped 0.1%

🔹 Dow Jones fell 0.4%

🔹 Bitcoin dropped 0.9%, followed by most altcoins
Tokens like BNB and FLOKI suffered sharper declines, especially after being mentioned in the White House’s new crypto policy report, which addressed digital asset reserves.

Cautious Optimism Lingers Despite Pullback
The crypto market had already faced volatility earlier in the week, so investors are treading carefully. Despite the dip, market sentiment remains greedy, and a rebound is still possible — depending on monetary signals in the coming weeks.

🔍 One-Minute Summary:
The FOMC kept rates unchanged, though two Fed members pushed for cuts. Powell remains cautious, warning against premature easing. Stocks and crypto fell after the announcement, but expectations for a September cut are still alive. Trump continues to pressure the Fed, and markets await the next move.

#fomc , #JeromePowell , #TRUMP , #CryptoMarket , #crypto

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The Federal Open Market Committee (#fomc ) meeting on July 30, 2025, concluded with the decision to maintain interest rates at 4.25%–4.5%, marking the fifth consecutive meeting without a rate change. Despite pressure from President Donald Trump for a rate cut, Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized a cautious approach, citing uncertainties around tariffs and their potential impact on inflation. Powell noted during the press conference that no decisions have been made for the September meeting, leaving markets anticipating whether a cut might come later in 2025. This decision has sparked speculation about its effect on Bitcoin ($BTC ) and the broader market.
BTC Daily Timeframe Analysis
In the daily timeframe, Bitcoin has been consolidating between 116,000 and 120,000 for the past 13 days, showing no decisive breakout. The price remains in a tight range, with neither buyers nor sellers dominating. Strong support persists around 115,800, preventing a deeper decline and keeping the bullish outlook intact for now.
However, a potential double top pattern is forming near 120,000. While not fully confirmed, this pattern signals resistance at higher levels. If Bitcoin fails to break above 120,000, a pullback could occur, potentially testing lower support levels.
BTC Weekly Timeframe Analysis
On the weekly chart, Bitcoin’s overall trend remains bullish. However, the current week shows a bearish candle forming, indicating that sellers are exerting some pressure. A critical support level exists around 110,000, which has held firm in the past. As long as the price stays above this level, the bullish trend remains intact.
If Bitcoin breaks below 110,000, it could trigger a significant drop, signaling stronger seller momentum. In such a scenario, traders would likely look for the next support level below 110,000 where the price might stabilize and potentially bounce.
BTC Fundamental Analysis
Fundamentally, several factors continue to shape Bitcoin’s outlook. The U.S. has implemented clearer crypto regulations, such as the recently passed Genius Act, boosting investor confidence. Major institutions, like Trump Media, have made significant Bitcoin purchases, while banks like JPMorgan are now offering loans backed by Bitcoin as collateral. Additionally, over $50 billion has flowed into Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), further driving price momentum.
On the macroeconomic front, the FOMC’s decision to hold rates steady reflects caution due to “somewhat elevated” inflation (2.7% CPI as of June 2025) and uncertainties surrounding Trump’s tariff policies. Powell noted that tariffs could lead to short-term price increases, though their long-term impact remains unclear. Despite Trump’s push for lower rates, the Fed’s focus remains on its dual mandate of maximum employment and 2% inflation. Two FOMC members, Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman, dissented, favoring a rate cut, marking a rare double dissent not seen since 1993. This signals potential openness to cuts later in 2025, which could act as a bullish catalyst for Bitcoin.
A favorable U.S.-Europe trade deal and expectations of future rate cuts also support a positive outlook for risk assets like Bitcoin, as lower rates typically encourage investment in high-growth assets.
Final Expected Movement
The weekly chart indicates a bullish trend, but short-term seller pressure is evident. The FOMC’s decision to hold rates steady has introduced uncertainty, with Powell’s remarks offering no clear guidance on a September cut. If Bitcoin breaks below 115,800 or, more critically, 110,000, it could signal a deeper correction, potentially testing lower supports.
Conversely, if the 115,800 support holds and positive sentiment around future rate cuts grows, #bitcoin could break above 120,000, resuming its upward trajectory. Traders should closely monitor upcoming economic data, particularly inflation and employment reports, as these will influence the Fed’s next moves.
In summary, while the long-term trend remains bullish, the lack of a rate cut on July 30 introduces short-term risks. A break below key supports could lead to a crash, while holding above them keeps the potential for a blast alive. Stay vigilant for the September FOMC meeting and incoming economic data.
I hope you find this analysis helpful. If you have any questions, drop them in the comment section. Thanks for reading!

As widely anticipated, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) concluded its July meeting by maintaining the target range for the federal funds rate at 5.25% to 5.50%. This pause extends the rate plateau reached last summer.
Key Takeaways:
Inflation Focus: The official statement acknowledged "modest further progress" towards the 2% inflation goal (PCE was 2.6% in May). However, Chair Powell emphasized the Fed needs "greater confidence" that inflation is moving sustainably down before cutting. Recent cooler CPI/PPI data was welcomed but not yet definitive.Strong Jobs = Patience: A resilient labor market (though showing some moderation) gives the Fed room to wait for clearer signs rather than rushing to cut.Future Path: The Fed removed language specifically counting past hikes, signaling a shift towards future decisions based solely on incoming data. Powell stated cuts won't be appropriate until they gain that confidence. Markets still expect the first cut potentially in September or November, contingent on data.Balance Sheet: Quantitative Tightening (QT) continues at its reduced pace ($25B Treasuries / $35B MBS cap).
Market Reaction: Initial moves were muted. Equities slightly up, yields dipped slightly, Dollar softened modestly – reflecting expectations for future cuts but no surprise today.
Bottom Line: The Fed is in a cautious holding pattern, encouraged by recent inflation trends but not yet declaring victory. Data dependence is paramount. The next few inflation and jobs reports will be critical for the timing of the first rate cut.
#Fed #fomc #MonetaryPolicy #interestrates #FinancialMarkets