The market for Bitcoin experiences significant ups and downs, making it difficult to maintain continuity; adapting flexibly under news-driven circumstances is key.
Recently, the trend of Bitcoin (BTC) has shown a characteristic of 'significant rises and falls without continuity,' with both increases and decreases lacking sustainability. The core reason lies in frequent disruptions from news events (such as macroeconomic data, regulatory policy expectations, etc.). In the face of a rapidly changing market, operations must pay more attention to flexible responses and short-term strategies.
Current market characteristics and strategy logic
1. Source of volatility: Rising expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate hikes and a deadlock in U.S. debt ceiling negotiations have triggered market risk aversion, leading to rapid switching of funds between cryptocurrencies and dollar assets.
2. Technical signals: On the daily chart, BTC is in a wide range between $100,000 and $110,000, and the MACD indicator on the 4-hour chart has repeatedly shown a 'divergence-repair' cycle, indicating a stalemate in the bull-bear struggle.
3. Operational strategy: Continue with a bearish approach, looking for entry opportunities within the resistance zone while avoiding chasing highs and cutting losses.
Specific operational suggestions (Bitcoin)
• Short entry range: $105,000 - $105,500
• Short-term target: $104,000 (testing previous low support)
• Swing target: $102,000 (strong support on the daily chart)
• Stop-loss: set above $106,000 (abandon short logic if broken)
Risk control and response points
1. Position management: Each individual short position should not exceed 5% of total capital, with stop-loss limits controlled at 1.5%-2% to prevent sudden positive news (such as breakthroughs in debt negotiations) leading to counter-trend fluctuations.
2. Tracking indicators: Focus on the Federal Reserve's economic beige book at 2 AM and the capital flow after tonight’s U.S. stock market close (inflow of stablecoins into exchanges). If a large amount of capital withdraws from cryptocurrencies occurs, short positions can be held overnight.
3. Flexible profit-taking: As the target is approached (e.g., $104,500), first close 50% of the position to lock in profits, and adjust the stop-loss on the remaining position to the cost price, aiming for further declines.
Summary
In a high-volatility environment dominated by news, **'quick in and out, take profits when available'** is a more prudent strategy. If the subsequent market breaks through the upper (at $110,000) or lower (at $100,000) bounds of the consolidation range, it is necessary to adjust thoughts in a timely manner and operate in the direction of the trend.