๐ Key Observations
๐ฐ Price: $105,543.14 (+0.22%) โ trading near top of 24h range ($104,300โ$105,680)
๐ Volume: $670.14M (24h) โ moderate, lacks breakout conviction
๐ RSI: 43.41 โ neutral, no strong directional signal
๐งจ MACD: Bearish divergence (DIF 751.81 < DEA 1,108.63, Histogram -356.82)
โ ๏ธ Critical: Price testing resistance but below key EMAs (7 & 25)
๐ Key Metrics
Current Price: $105,543.14
EMAs:
EMA(7): $106,269.05
EMA(25): $105,660.98
EMA(99): $98,530.83
RSI(6): 43.41
MACD:
DIF: 751.81
DEA: 1,108.63
Histogram: -356.82 ๐ฅ
24h Volume: $670.14M USDT ๐
๐ง Technical Analysis
๐ง Resistance Cluster:
Price compressed between $105,660 (EMA 25) and $105,680 (24h high)
Weak breakout structure
๐ EMA Bear Stack:
Price below EMA(7) & EMA(25) โ short-term bearish structure
EMA(7) < EMA(25) โ momentum declining
๐ MACD Deterioration:
Histogram -356.82 โ accelerating bearish momentum
DIF < DEA = Bearish cross active
๐ Volume:
No surge in breakout zone = weak buyer pressure
๐ฎ Price Prediction
๐ Next 12โ24h Forecast:
๐ป Base Case (70%): Rejection at $105,660 โ drop to $105,000 โ $104,300
๐ข Bull Case (30%): Breakout above $105,680 โ push to $106,269 (EMA 7)
๐๏ธ 3-Day Outlook:
๐ป Close < $104,300 = deeper pullback to $103,779 โ $100,372
๐ผ Recovery > $106,269 needed for bullish reversal
๐ Trade Plan
โก Intraday Trades (Next 4โ6h)
๐ฅ Short at Resistance
Entry: $105,600โ$105,650 (EMA 25 zone)
Target: $105,000 โ $104,500
SL: $105,750
Trigger: 15m bearish engulfing ๐ฏ๏ธ
๐ญ Breakout Fade
Entry: $105,700
Target: $105,200 โ $104,800
SL: $105,850
Trigger: Weak volume breakout (<$50M)
๐งฒ Swing Trades
๐ Breakdown Short
Entry: $104,250
Target: $103,779 โ $102,000
SL: $104,500
Confirm: RSI < 40
๐ EMA Rebound Long
Entry: $103,800
Target: $105,000 โ $105,660
SL: $103,600
Trigger: 4H bullish hammer + MACD histogram improvement
โ๏ธ Risk Parameters
๐ผ Position Size: โค1.5% of capital
๐ฏ Take Profit:
Shorts: 50% at $105,000, 50% at $104,500
Longs: 50% at $104,800, 50% at $105,500
๐ Stop Loss: Max 0.5% account risk
๐จ Critical Triggers
- ๐ด BEARISH CONFIRMATION: ! Rejection at $105,660 (EMA 25) ! RSI < 40 ! 4h close < $104,300 ! Volume spike on breakdown + ๐ข BULLISH REVERSAL: ! Close > $106,269 (EMA 7) ! MACD histogram > -200 ! RSI > 50 + rising volume ! Bullish EMA crossover (EMA 7 > EMA 25)
๐งพ Summary
BTC/USDT is at a critical resistance zone ๐งฑ
๐บ Make-or-Break: $105,660 โ $105,680
๐ป Support Below: $104,300 โ $103,779
Top Trades:
โ๏ธ Short at $105,630 (SL: $105,750)
โ ๏ธ Breakdown short below $104,250
๐ EMA bounce long near $103,800 only with confirmation
๐ Take 50% profit at $105,000 (for shorts). Watch $104,300โ$104,500 for fakeouts or liquidity sweeps.
โ ๏ธ Note: EMA(7) < EMA(25) = dominant bearish pressure. MACD histogram (-356) = strongest sell momentum recently.
take Trade From here ๐ $BTC
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