Donald Trump says he’s working the phones again—this time to force Israel and Iran to sit down and figure out how not to blow the planet up.

In a long post on Truth Social, the president said he believes both countries “should make a deal, and will make a deal,” and he plans to use American trade to make it happen. He compared it to how he claims he calmed things down between India and Pakistan last month.

The method then, Trump said, was straight-up trade leverage. “TRADE with the United States brought reason, cohesion, and sanity,” he posted, calling the leaders he dealt with “excellent” and “able to quickly make a decision and STOP!”

Meanwhile, according to a report by Reuters, Trump has already blocked an Israeli plan to assassinate Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Two senior US officials told the outlet that Trump rejected the idea on the grounds that no American had been killed yet.

One of them reportedly said, “Have the Iranians killed an American yet? No. Until they do, we’re not even talking about going after the political leadership.” That veto, paired with Trump’s sudden push for peace, suggests that he wants a deal, not a new war.

Trump says Iran and Israel are ready to talk

Trump also claimed that talks were already underway, though he didn’t say who was in the room or what was being said. “Many calls and meetings now taking place,” he wrote.

He said his work in Serbia and Kosovo, and later Egypt and Ethiopia shows his ability to stop decades-old fights from turning into full-blown wars. “There is peace, at least for now, because of my intervention,” he wrote about the Nile River dispute.

He promised the same approach would be used to cool things between Tehran and Tel Aviv, closing with: “MAKE THE MIDDLE EAST GREAT AGAIN!”

But there’s one problem. That story doesn’t match what Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is saying. Over the weekend, Benjamin told reporters that Israel’s campaign against Iran would intensify. That message goes directly against Trump’s claim that talks are on.

But Trump doubled down in an interview with ABC News, saying, “Something like this had to happen… They want to talk, and they will be talking. May have forced a deal to go quicker, actually.”

Conflict pushes oil, inflation, and interest rates into chaos zone

The fallout from the growing conflict is already blowing through the global economy. If things don’t cool off soon, JP Morgan says oil prices could hit $130 a barrel. That’s high enough to push US inflation from current levels up to 5%, doubling what it is now.

That would also delay any possible interest rate cuts this year, something that investors are already pricing in. Every major market that touches oil is bracing.

Iran is currently pumping out 3.3 million barrels a day, or about 3.5% of global supply, but it’s not just production that people are watching. The real danger is the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow 21-mile-wide strip of water that handles 20 million barrels per day—almost the exact amount the US uses daily.

If Iran locks it down, 88% of Persian Gulf oil exports get stuck. There’s no detour. All Iran has to do is scare Lloyd’s of London, and ships start backing off.

That’s why analysts think the question isn’t just about price anymore. The bigger issue is whether global supply chains, built on just-in-time deliveries, can survive this kind of energy shock. Everything depends on the strait staying open. The world bet that it never closes. That bet might fail.

Meanwhile, Israel’s inflation rate dropped more than expected in May, landing at 3.1%, below the 3.4% analysts predicted in a Reuters poll. Still, it remains above the government’s 1%-3% target range, and officials are warning that this war could undo any progress. Israel’s central bank blames ongoing supply issues tied to conflict while admitting that local demand is helping keep prices high.

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