Market Analysis

June 12, 2025

1. Technical Structure: Short-term Trend is Weak

Bitcoin has broken below the key upward trend line and failed to hold the structural support above $106K. The RSI has dropped to about 37 on the 30-minute and 4-hour charts, and the MACD shows a bearish trend.

The daily level has broken below the 20/50/100 EMA.

2. Macroeconomic Sentiment and Liquidity Risk

Geopolitical tensions (Middle East conflict) are continuously disturbing the sentiment of risk assets, with funds continuing to flow out. BTC has dropped below $103K in the last 24 hours, with significant fluctuations throughout the day.

The Bitcoin Advanced Sentiment Index has dropped to 46%, below the neutral line, indicating weak buying pressure. The market is experiencing a cooling of sentiment.

3. Derivatives & Liquidation Pressure

Today, approximately $3B in BTC options are set to expire, with the maximum pain point in the $107K range, showing significant divergence.

If it falls below $103K again, it may trigger significant long liquidations, intensifying downward momentum; conversely, if it rebounds to $105–107K, it may also trigger short liquidations, leading to intense long and short battles.

Today, BTC primarily shows a downward trend, but there are support opportunities at important structures ($103–105K). The short-term trading is aggressive, and it is advisable to interpret technical signals in line with the trend and adjust strategies based on market conditions. If the price effectively rebounds after a pullback and breaks through key resistance, it may initiate a new round of mid-term bullishness; otherwise, the market may continue to seek a bottom.