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Market Analysis
June 12, 2025
1. Technical Structure: Short-term Trend is Weak
Bitcoin has broken below the key upward trend line and failed to hold the structural support above $106K. The RSI has dropped to about 37 on the 30-minute and 4-hour charts, and the MACD shows a bearish trend.
The daily level has broken below the 20/50/100 EMA.
2. Macroeconomic Sentiment and Liquidity Risk
Geopolitical tensions (Middle East conflict) are continuously disturbing the sentiment of risk assets, with funds continuing to flow out. BTC has dropped below $103K in the last 24 hours, with significant fluctuations throughout the day.
The Bitcoin Advanced Sentiment Index has dropped to 46%, below the neutral line, indicating weak buying pressure. The market is experiencing a cooling of sentiment.
3. Derivatives & Liquidation Pressure
Today, approximately $3B in BTC options are set to expire, with the maximum pain point in the $107K range, showing significant divergence.
If it falls below $103K again, it may trigger significant long liquidations, intensifying downward momentum; conversely, if it rebounds to $105–107K, it may also trigger short liquidations, leading to intense long and short battles.
Today, BTC primarily shows a downward trend, but there are support opportunities at important structures ($103–105K). The short-term trading is aggressive, and it is advisable to interpret technical signals in line with the trend and adjust strategies based on market conditions. If the price effectively rebounds after a pullback and breaks through key resistance, it may initiate a new round of mid-term bullishness; otherwise, the market may continue to seek a bottom.

Market Analysis on June 9, 2025

The price of $BTC is oscillating around the range of $105,600 to $106,000. Although it briefly surged to $106,500 last night before retreating, the logic of short liquidity hunting is highly aligned with market data.

During the surge last night, about $420 million in short positions were liquidated within the range of $106,039 to $108,129 (Figure 1), and the price quickly fell back to around $105,600, indicating that the main force completed chip collection through 'pulling up short positions - reversing to sell pressure' during the liquidity exhaustion phase. This is consistent with the strategy of absorbing active buying, aligning with the typical methods of derivatives hunting by market makers.

Currently, Binance perpetual contracts have accumulated about 4,000 BTC buy orders in the narrow range of $105,600 to $105,800. The main force is creating a liquidity trap through dense orders, waiting to trigger a sell-off after a reversal in market sentiment.

Currently, there is a buildup of $15.11 billion in short leverage positions in the range of $105,600 to $110,000. If the price briefly breaks through $106,500, it may trigger a short squeeze (targeting $115,000). However, it is more likely that the main force will create a 'false breakout' to siphon liquidity, attracting trend-following positions for reverse harvesting (Figure 2).

A real bull market requires continued inflow of ETF funds, recovery of miner fee income, and other fundamental supports. Currently, on-chain trading volume has dropped to the lowest level since October 2023, lacking sustained upward momentum.

Resistance and Support Analysis

Resistance Level: Today's high of $106,365 serves as recent resistance. If broken, it may test $110,000 or even higher.
Support Level: Today's low of $105,112 serves as recent support. If broken, it may retrace below $105,000, but the likelihood of a bullish outcome based on technical indicators is low.

Short-Term Strategy: Maintain a wait-and-see approach, making decisions after the price breaks through $106,365 or falls below $105,112.

Bulls: If the price breaks through $106,200 with volume, consider lightly entering long positions up to $107,300, with a stop-loss at $105,800.

Bears: Accumulate positions in batches on a rebound to $105,800-$106,000, targeting a drop to $103,500-$102,100, with a stop-loss at $106,500.

$BTC Market Analysis
1. Market Fundamentals & Sentiment Changes
Bitcoin continues to oscillate around 105k, although there has been a short-term rebound, the overall sentiment is tending to neutral and weak.
The micro sentiment indicator “Fear and Greed Index” remains neutral today, around the 50–55 range, lacking a clear directional trend.
Overall market risk aversion continues, influenced by the weak stock market (S&P, Nasdaq futures down about 1.5%), putting increased pressure on BTC in recent pullbacks.
2. Key Technical Levels
Support Level: Recent price support is concentrated around 100k and 95.5k USD. If these areas are broken, the trend may continue to weaken.
Resistance Level: Upper resistance is seen around ~107k USD. If it cannot break through, short-term pressure is evident.
Chart patterns show a typical “neckline retest” structure, with limited rebound functionality in the short term. If the retest fails, it may trigger further declines.
3. Derivatives Market Dynamics
Recently, large long positions have been liquidated. According to data, a nearly 100 million USD BTC long position was closed after falling below 100k.
There are still many short orders between 102k–108k, forming potential support or resistance for market changes.
4. Comprehensive Judgment: Structure Not Fully Bottomed
Gap Filling: The CME gap has basically been filled, hindering short-term rises.
Liquidation Range: The next focus for long liquidation risk is on 100k–102k. If it breaks below, it will face additional pressure.
The concentrated area for short liquidation is between 106,039-108,129 USD (the average entry price of the top two shorts on the Hyperliquid platform), while strong support for long positions is at 104,297-102,065 USD (30-day exchange net outflow cost line).
Today's market continues a neutral and weak trend, with rebounds peaking but hard to break through. However, this is a typical pattern of game between the market makers through derivatives stop-loss and liquidation. Combining naked candlestick and order book analysis, focus on whether 100k–102k can hold.

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