$BTC Market Analysis

1. Market Fundamentals & Sentiment Changes

Bitcoin continues to oscillate around 105k, although there has been a short-term rebound, the overall sentiment is tending to neutral and weak.

The micro sentiment indicator “Fear and Greed Index” remains neutral today, around the 50–55 range, lacking a clear directional trend.

Overall market risk aversion continues, influenced by the weak stock market (S&P, Nasdaq futures down about 1.5%), putting increased pressure on BTC in recent pullbacks.

2. Key Technical Levels

Support Level: Recent price support is concentrated around 100k and 95.5k USD. If these areas are broken, the trend may continue to weaken.

Resistance Level: Upper resistance is seen around ~107k USD. If it cannot break through, short-term pressure is evident.

Chart patterns show a typical “neckline retest” structure, with limited rebound functionality in the short term. If the retest fails, it may trigger further declines.

3. Derivatives Market Dynamics

Recently, large long positions have been liquidated. According to data, a nearly 100 million USD BTC long position was closed after falling below 100k.

There are still many short orders between 102k–108k, forming potential support or resistance for market changes.

4. Comprehensive Judgment: Structure Not Fully Bottomed

Gap Filling: The CME gap has basically been filled, hindering short-term rises.

Liquidation Range: The next focus for long liquidation risk is on 100k–102k. If it breaks below, it will face additional pressure.

The concentrated area for short liquidation is between 106,039-108,129 USD (the average entry price of the top two shorts on the Hyperliquid platform), while strong support for long positions is at 104,297-102,065 USD (30-day exchange net outflow cost line).

Today's market continues a neutral and weak trend, with rebounds peaking but hard to break through. However, this is a typical pattern of game between the market makers through derivatives stop-loss and liquidation. Combining naked candlestick and order book analysis, focus on whether 100k–102k can hold.