Market Analysis on June 9, 2025

The price of $BTC is oscillating around the range of $105,600 to $106,000. Although it briefly surged to $106,500 last night before retreating, the logic of short liquidity hunting is highly aligned with market data.

During the surge last night, about $420 million in short positions were liquidated within the range of $106,039 to $108,129 (Figure 1), and the price quickly fell back to around $105,600, indicating that the main force completed chip collection through 'pulling up short positions - reversing to sell pressure' during the liquidity exhaustion phase. This is consistent with the strategy of absorbing active buying, aligning with the typical methods of derivatives hunting by market makers.

Currently, Binance perpetual contracts have accumulated about 4,000 BTC buy orders in the narrow range of $105,600 to $105,800. The main force is creating a liquidity trap through dense orders, waiting to trigger a sell-off after a reversal in market sentiment.

Currently, there is a buildup of $15.11 billion in short leverage positions in the range of $105,600 to $110,000. If the price briefly breaks through $106,500, it may trigger a short squeeze (targeting $115,000). However, it is more likely that the main force will create a 'false breakout' to siphon liquidity, attracting trend-following positions for reverse harvesting (Figure 2).

A real bull market requires continued inflow of ETF funds, recovery of miner fee income, and other fundamental supports. Currently, on-chain trading volume has dropped to the lowest level since October 2023, lacking sustained upward momentum.

Resistance and Support Analysis

Resistance Level: Today's high of $106,365 serves as recent resistance. If broken, it may test $110,000 or even higher.

Support Level: Today's low of $105,112 serves as recent support. If broken, it may retrace below $105,000, but the likelihood of a bullish outcome based on technical indicators is low.

Short-Term Strategy: Maintain a wait-and-see approach, making decisions after the price breaks through $106,365 or falls below $105,112.

Bulls: If the price breaks through $106,200 with volume, consider lightly entering long positions up to $107,300, with a stop-loss at $105,800.

Bears: Accumulate positions in batches on a rebound to $105,800-$106,000, targeting a drop to $103,500-$102,100, with a stop-loss at $106,500.