On a macro level, at the Coinbase 'State of Crypto' summit, Trump clearly stated that the U.S. will strive to create a clear regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies, aiming to dominate the global market in Bitcoin and digital assets. This statement invigorated the crypto market, but the implementation of subsequent policies remains to be observed. In addition, Trump delivered a lengthy speech during the bill signing ceremony, covering U.S.-China trade, the situation in the Middle East, and his 'grievances' with Musk. He optimistically predicted that a consensus in U.S.-China trade negotiations would be reached soon and joked that Musk 'ultimately supports him,' sparking public discussion.
Trump also sharply criticized Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, suggesting that the Fed should cut interest rates by 200 basis points to stimulate economic growth. This proposal has sparked controversy in the market, as it starkly contrasts with current economic data and the Fed's cautious stance.
The U.S. core PPI data for May fell short of expectations, indicating a slight easing of inflationary pressures, which further heightened traders' expectations for two interest rate cuts by the Fed this year. The positive PPI data provided a slight boost to market sentiment, but with Trump's tariff policies not yet fully in effect, there is still limited room for monetary policy adjustments. Recently, officials such as Bessent hinted that the pause on tariffs might be extended, increasing policy uncertainty.
In the field of cryptocurrency regulation, the lawsuit between the U.S. SEC and Ripple has reached a critical development. Both parties have submitted the latest documents to the court, requesting a judgment on the $125 million fine-related ruling to end nearly five years of legal disputes. The documents indicate a significant shift in the SEC's attitude towards cryptocurrency regulation, and both sides hope to conclude the case. The outcome of this lawsuit may provide important reference for regulation in the cryptocurrency industry.
Despite optimistic expectations regarding U.S.-China trade and PPI data providing positive signals for the market, geopolitical conflicts remain the main driving factor for recent market declines. Although the conflicts have not yet been resolved, the market has begun to digest the associated risks. However, the tug-of-war between bulls and bears remains intense, and caution is still needed while waiting for the situation to become clearer.
In summary, Bitcoin fluctuates within the range of $100,000 to $105,000, with weak stability in the short term, and significant events may trigger drastic volatility. The market has a high turnover rate, with signs of both profit-taking and loss-taking players exiting, particularly among short-term losers. Currently, $93,000 to $98,000 remains a strong support level, and if no major negative or positive developments occur, the market may continue to exhibit a tug-of-war state.