After 48 hours of intense negotiations between China and the United States in London, they have temporarily pressed the nuclear button on the trade war, but the fuse is still burning. August 10 is the life-or-death line!

Temporary painkiller:

The U.S. has loosened its grip on rare earth exports.

China has also eased restrictions, allowing Shenzhen rare earth companies to export again.

The most drastic move is the tariff reduction! The punitive tariffs imposed by the U.S. on China have been slashed from 145% to 30%, while China's tariffs on the U.S. have dropped from 125% to 10%. This is definitely a significant concession from both sides!

BUT! A time bomb hangs overhead:

August 10 is the deadline! If a deal cannot be reached beforehand, all the lowered tariffs will “bang” back up, and even more severely! This is not an agreement; it's simply a postponement of an explosion!

A superficial ceasefire, but secretly stabbing:

The U.S. is being covertly tough: the bans on chips and aircraft equipment related to China remain unchanged, while boasting about the court's support for its 34% “standard” tariff. I see this as a delaying tactic, with the big stick ready to swing down at any moment!

China is not backing down either: Exports to the U.S. plummeted by 34.5% in May, setting a record, and the trade war indeed hurts. But we have the rare earth trump card, forcing the U.S. to come back to the negotiating table; this is a strong hand!