【$btc】2025.6.12

Is $btc failing? Is the top position approaching? For those who went long above, is there still a chance to break even? Here, I share some on-chain data. In the past 24 hours, short-term holders have averaged a sale of 21,000 bitcoins through exchanges, which is still below the historical average. According to historical data, when the average sale by short-term holders reaches above 40,000, there is a high probability that a temporary top will occur. The chart below shows the selling situation of short-term holders in the past 24 hours.

So, you can only say that there are signs of this, but it is not absolute; there will still be a process of repeated fluctuations in the future, and even a process of rising. However, if this rise really happens, in my opinion, it may be the last rise before the official announcement of the interest rate cut, after all, the day the interest rate cut is announced is likely the beginning of the market's re-energizing.

Whether this wave is a sell-off or a shakeout is still unclear. The most critical support below, in my view, is also absolute support and the dividing line of strength and weakness, still at the 106,000 level, which I have mentioned repeatedly. Starting from this position, I will definitely carry out a phased layout of long positions. At the same time, this is also very likely to be the target position for this round of adjustment; of course, if not, there is only one possibility: the price rebounds in advance and stabilizes at the 109,000 level. The logic is that simple.

Today, we will see how far the rebound can go, using 109,000 as a defensive position to short at highs. The pressure above is 【108,200-108,500】. As for the support below, it is the 107,300 level. Once it falls below 107,300 again, first look at 106,800 and then at 106,000. #美国加征关税 #加密圆桌讨论 #币安HODLer空投RESOLV