【$btc】2025.6.16

Yo! Has the price adjusted properly, and is it about to rise again? At least for now, it does seem like it will rise. Even if there is a setback in between, it will only be a slight adjustment, presenting you with an opportunity. But be aware, even if this wave goes up, it is likely just a relief opportunity for long positions at high levels; don't fantasize about it soaring to the sky. Before confirming the next interest rate cut, there will still be significant drops and the possibility of substantial adjustments. And this recent crash does not count. So what constitutes a substantial adjustment? At least a drop below 100,000, around 96,500, is what I would call a substantial adjustment.

This wave, I call it a rebound rise. As for how far this wave can go? Stabilizing at 107,000 looks towards 108,200. The extreme position is around 109,600. The higher the position, the more cautious you should be when going long; make sure to set stop losses, and absolutely do not hold onto long positions recklessly. If one day in the future there’s another significant drop, and your long position is trapped, you will feel extremely uncomfortable, because at that time, it is quite possible that the price will approach the 96,500 mark. Of course, if you are willing to hold and have a large position, then forget what I said. Anyway, if this wave can rise, I currently only see it as an opportunity to relieve high-level longs. It is also a time node to lure in more buying from the market makers.

In the short term, the current pressure is around the 107,000 line. So far, this pressure is not a big issue; it can break through and stabilize. However, around this pressure, don't rule out the possibility of slight adjustments, which is essentially a shakeout. The effective support below mainly gathers around [105,700-105,900]. Does this mean that when the price reaches here, we can look for opportunities to go long? Yes.

And which position is most likely to encounter resistance and then start slight adjustments? 107,000. But don’t gamble; don’t foolishly short against the trend, then just place an order without fear of the market continuing to push forward and being blown out. So here, I want to emphasize that even if you want to short, it's best to do so from the right side of the trend. At least the trend for the past two days has been upward consolidation.