📉 $BTC – Fakeout or Breakdown?

After reclaiming $100,410 on June 5 in a dramatic V-shaped reversal, Bitcoin surged back toward $110K, only to now show signs of exhaustion. The question on everyone's mind: Was that just a relief rally? Or are we seeing the early signs of a broader retracement?

🔍 Let’s break it down:

📉 Price Action:

– Sharp recovery from the $100K zone bounced straight into resistance near $110K, but momentum faded fast.

– The latest candles show rejection and a clean break below the 7 EMA and 25 EMA — now sitting precariously on the 99 EMA (~$108K).

– A decisive close below this level could confirm the start of a short-term bearish phase.

📊 Volume:

– Volume spiked on the rebound from $100K, but declined steadily during the climb — suggesting waning buyer conviction.

– Recent selling volume is creeping up again, hinting that the bears may be taking back control.

🧠 MACD:

– The MACD histogram has flipped bearish with growing negative divergence.

– The MACD line has crossed below the signal, pointing to a momentum shift to the downside.

📉 RSI:

– RSI(6) is tanking around 15 — a deeply oversold reading. But beware: RSI can remain oversold in a downtrend.

– RSI(24) has also turned downward after hovering around 40, failing to retake bullish territory.

🔭 Key Levels:

– Support: $107K (currently testing), then $104K, and psychologically $100K.

– Resistance: $108.5K (99 EMA), then $110K.

🧠 The Bigger Picture:

This chart is a lesson in market psychology. After the panic dip to $100K, bulls rushed in — but without volume and trend confirmation, the bounce was likely fueled by short liquidations, not true accumulation.

Now that the price is rolling over and indicators align to the downside, BTC needs to hold the $107K–$104K range or risk another visit to five-digit territory.

⚠️ Caution, not panic: This isn’t necessarily the start of a crash — but it's a reminder that relief rallies without fundamentals are just traps in disguise.