"When everyone is gazing at the stars, the smart ones are already preparing their parachutes."

News Analysis: The bears have four knives, each piercing deeply.

  1. Regulatory Hammer Hanging: Although the new SEC chair supports DeFi, the recent CFPB review of the privacy protocol XBIT has directly suppressed confidence in the ETH ecosystem, leading to a slowdown in institutional fund inflows.

  2. Technical Upgrades Holding Back: The Pectra mainnet upgrade has been delayed to Q3 due to vulnerabilities, and the market's expectations for ETH efficiency improvements have fallen flat, with funds shifting towards competitors like SOL.

  3. Whale's Hidden Moves: On-chain data shows that a certain whale recently sold 12,000 ETH (about $33 million) in 12 transactions, while the influx of funds to exchanges surged, suspected to be the main force enticing retail investors to sell.

  4. Rate Cut Expectations Backfire: The Federal Reserve has a 72% probability of a rate cut in June, which seems beneficial, but funds are leaning more towards safe-haven assets like BTC, with the ETH/BTC exchange rate dropping to a new low of 0.0238 this year, increasing the risk for retail investors.

Technical Analysis: Rising feels like climbing a slope, while falling is like sliding down a slide.

  • Four-hour K-line: The price is stuck around 2759, with 2879 above acting as a short-term 'iron top' and 2700 below as a psychological defense line. The MACD red bar is shortening, and the bulls are 'unable to step on the gas', while the KDJ is overbought (J value 82), which may stall at any time.

  • Bollinger Band Trap: The current price has broken through the upper band of $165, historical data shows a 68% probability of a pullback within 72 hours, with an average decline of 8.3%, targeting the lower range of 2560-2469.

  • On-chain Warning: The proportion of long contracts has reached a year-high of 63%, retail investors are betting wildly, but the main force is suppressing the price, with fluctuations of only 0.3%, clearly a 'fishing market'.


"The market won't tell you when to run, but data and the main force will - follow the big D for insights, supported by a professional team to teach you how to steadily increase your value. Risks and opportunities coexist in investing; blind operations are a major taboo in the crypto world!"$ETH #ETH