"Concerns under the bull market frenzy, the MACD death cross has lit up a red light, tonight's CPI may be the last straw that breaks the camel's back!"

News Analysis

  1. CPI data becomes the focus: Tonight (June 12) the U.S. CPI data will be released. If inflation exceeds expectations, the probability of a Fed rate cut will plummet, and BTC may struggle to break below the 105,000 support; if the data is weak, although it is beneficial in the short term, it is difficult to change the high-level stagnation pattern.

  2. Institutional fund divergence: Although BlackRock's BTC ETF scale reaches 70 billion dollars, some ETF funds continue to flow out, with large buy orders concentrated in the 100,000-105,000 range, and heavy selling pressure above 110,000.

  3. Market sentiment cools: Prediction platform Polymarket shows that the probability of BTC breaking through 120,000 in June is only 37%, with most betting on a fluctuation in the 100,000-120,000 range, and clear signs of weakness among bulls.

Technical Analysis

  1. Key signals on the four-hour K-line:

    • MACD death cross confirmed: DIF (820.21) deeply trapped below DEA (1019.67), green bars (-398.93) continue to expand, bearish momentum is strong.

    • Bollinger band mouth contraction: Current price 108,592 is close to the upper track (111,980), but the middle track support is only 100,372. Once it breaks, it will open up downward space.

    • Volume contraction: When rebounding to the 110,000 threshold, trading volume decreases, increasing the risk of a false breakout.

  2. Key price levels:

    • Resistance: 111,000 (previous high) + 110,000 (psychological level) dual pressure;

    • Support: 105,000 (bullish defense line) → 100,400 (Bollinger middle track), if broken, look to 96,000.

Specific buy and sell points and strategies focus on the big D, providing real-time analysis from a professional perspective, teaching you how to steadily increase value.

$BTC #BTC走势分析