Recently, Ethereum has been surging, and this strong market trend has led many to anticipate the arrival of 'Altcoin Season'—the golden period when altcoins soar alongside mainstream coins. However, this situation may be different from the past; we need to examine it closely!

One, why is Ethereum so strong?

First, Ethereum itself is indeed impressive. In May, it broke through $2,600, and although there was some fluctuation in June, the technical outlook remains bullish. More importantly, it just completed the 'Cancun Upgrade', where the EIP-4844 protocol reduced Layer 2 transaction costs by 14 times, effectively giving a strong boost to the entire Ethereum ecosystem. Imagine this: previously, transferring would cost $100 in fees, now it only costs $7, which will certainly encourage users and developers to stay on Ethereum, laying the groundwork for the subsequent explosion of altcoins.

Two, is altcoin season really here?

From the data, altcoins are indeed making moves. For example, Chainlink (LINK) rose by 16.6% in the past week, with active addresses soaring from 2,000 to over 5,000, and the derivatives market is also quite lively. Analysts have pointed out that the ETH/BTC exchange rate has formed a 'cup and handle' pattern and a 'bull flag'; historically, such situations have often led to a 30%-55% increase in altcoins. Additionally, the altcoin season index rose from 14 in April to 40 in May; although it hasn't reached the threshold of 75, it is already a high point in nearly 90 days.

However, this market trend is completely different from the 'general rise' of 2021. The current altcoin season feels more like 'Altcoin Season 2.0'—funds are no longer overflowing from Bitcoin but are flowing directly from stablecoins (like USDT, USDC) into specific narrative sectors, such as RWA (Real World Assets) and AI + blockchain. For example, recently, Zebec Network (ZBCN) rose by 300% in a month, while Plume (PLUME) and OriginTrail (TRAC) also performed well in the RWA sector. This 'precision strike' means that only a few altcoins with real application scenarios will benefit, while purely speculative projects may not even get a taste.

Three, which altcoins have the most potential?

1. Technical players: For instance, Solana (SOL), which has recently been overshadowed by Ethereum, is still capable of processing 65,000 transactions per second with very low fees, making it a popular choice for DeFi and NFTs. Also, the NEAR protocol, optimized for AI-native applications, has sharding technology that enhances its scalability and speed.

2. Narrative-driven: The RWA sector has been particularly hot recently, with projects like Zebec Network (ZBCN) focusing on real-time payroll settlement and Plume (PLUME) working on decentralized storage, which are closely tied to the real world and easily gain institutional favor. Additionally, the combination of AI and blockchain is also heating up, such as the Virtuals Protocol (VIRTUAL), which is a launch platform for AI agents and has risen by 2000% in the past year.

3. New potential stocks: Projects in the presale stage are also worth paying attention to. For example, Mutuum Finance (MUTM) combines P2C and P2P lending models, has been audited by Certik, and raised $9.9 million in the presale stage, with an expected 100% price increase after listing.

Four, the 'roadblock' of this market trend

1. Bitcoin's dominance is too high: Currently, Bitcoin's market share is around 63%, with funds concentrated in mainstream coins, making it difficult for altcoins to capture a larger share of the market.

2. Retail participation is insufficient: Compared to 2021, the enthusiasm for trading coins on social media has clearly cooled, and retail investors have become more cautious. Many are worried that altcoins will crash quickly after a surge, similar to MEME coins in 2024.

3. Policy risk: Trump's tariff policies may drive up inflation; although the May CPI was below expectations, the market still fears subsequent volatility. Additionally, the regulatory stance on altcoins is also unclear and could bring cold water at any time.

Five, how should ordinary investors play?

1. Don't chase highs; look for quality coins at lower prices: Many altcoins are still at low levels, for example, TRAC is hovering around $0.48, and breaking through $0.5 may start a new round of increases.

2. Focus on on-chain data: For example, the inflow of altcoins into exchanges and changes in whale holdings. Recently, there have been large whale transfers of tokens like IMX and SSV, which may indicate short-term market trends.

3. Control your positions and diversify risks: Altcoins are highly volatile; it's recommended to use no more than 20% of your portfolio for participation and to diversify investments across 3-5 different project sectors.

Summary

Ethereum's strong performance indeed opened up rising space for altcoins, but 'Altcoin Season 2.0' feels more like a 'precision strike,' where only projects with technology, narrative, and funding attention can stand out. If you want to participate, remember to closely monitor policy trends, on-chain data, and project fundamentals; avoid blindly following trends and trading air coins. Lastly, a reminder: there are no guaranteed profits in the crypto market; protecting your principal should always be the top priority!

Comment, share, like, and follow: How long do you think this altcoin season will last? Which altcoins are most likely to become dark horses? Feel free to leave a message in the comments section, and remember to share it with your crypto buddies to seize the opportunity together! Click to follow for more in-depth analysis and real-time market updates on cryptocurrencies~ 🚀