Hello everyone, on June 11, friends in the live broadcast room may have noticed that in the recent two days of horizontal fluctuations in the BTC market, a bizarre phenomenon has emerged — certain main funds frequently place "hundred million dollar level short-lived large orders." Just like the scene captured earlier: a sudden appearance of a $100 million buy order at the order book, but it was canceled lightning fast after less than $10,000 was executed. This kind of "loud thunder but little rain" operation is definitely not normal market behavior, but a typical tactic of main force baiting.
Within just 24 hours yesterday, we captured 4 such abnormal orders. Behind these fleeting large orders, the main force usually hides three calculations:
The first calculation is psychological suggestion warfare. When you see an $80 million buy order suddenly appear at 3 AM, what is your first reaction? Most retail investors instinctively think, "Large funds are bottom fishing," and rush to follow suit and go long. Little do they know, this might be a carefully laid bull trap by the main force — they don't actually want to execute real trades, they are just using this numerical firework to stimulate market sentiment. Similarly, a sudden large sell order can also trigger panic selling. Just like last week's ETH false breakdown, it was triggered by a few "phantom sell orders".
The second calculation is market probing techniques. These short-lived large orders are like the main force's sonar detection, specifically used to test the current market's true depth. A friend from a high-frequency quantitative team revealed that they often assess in this way: if they suddenly cancel a $50 million buy order, will the market support collapse? Will slippage exceed expectations? More cunningly, some main forces create a diversion — placing fake orders on Binance to create a smokescreen, while secretly completing real positions on OKX or Coinbase. It’s like a magician's sleight of hand; while your attention is drawn to the left hand, the right hand has already completed the key action.
The third calculation is the deception of the behavioral chain. What is truly worth being vigilant about is not the order numbers themselves, but the behavior chain of "placing orders - canceling orders - executing trades." For example: the main force first places a $100 million buy order to create a bullish atmosphere, and when retail investors follow suit to push up the price, they quietly sell at a higher price. The entire process is like a carefully choreographed play, with that eye-catching "$100 million" being just a poster to attract you to buy a ticket to enter.
The solution lies in four key filters:
Execution rate filter—— Only focus on large orders with an execution rate exceeding 80% (Figure 7), directly ignore those "paper tigers" with less than 1% execution.
Time funnel — set a 5-minute observation window to filter out fake orders with a lifespan shorter than 3 K-line periods.
Amount threshold—— In the BTC perpetual contract market, so-called "large orders" below $10 million are not worth even a glance.
Behavior validation—— It is necessary to see the main force genuinely executing trades immediately after canceling orders in a reverse operation.
Speaking of practical tools, our community-developed "Main Force Behavior Tracker" has helped many users avoid traps. This indicator scans in real-time: when large orders appear, is there a corresponding flow of funds on the chain? Does a reverse opening position appear immediately after canceling orders? Just like last week's false BTC breakout, the system issued a "Main Force Inducing Long" alert 10 minutes in advance.
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Remember, in this market where psychological games are played every second, the real winners always pay attention to the movements of the main force's wallet, rather than the fleeting numerical magic of the order book. In the next live broadcast, we will dissect the "on-chain fingerprints of the main force during market manipulation," so stay tuned!
This article only represents the author's personal views and does not represent the stance and views of this platform. This article is for informational sharing only and does not constitute any investment advice to anyone.
