Big news has come out about Solana again.
The US SEC has recently begun requiring issuers of Solana spot ETFs to update their S-1 prospectus. This 'updating the prospectus' operation, in simple terms, is telling the market: the review process is accelerating!
You may still remember that the ETH spot ETF was officially announced to be approved less than two weeks after the S-1 update. So many people have begun to compare Solana with ETH to see if this 'copycat second' has a chance to replicate that wave of main upward market. Let's make a simple comparison:
Progress stage Ethereum (ETH) ETF Solana (SOL) ETF 19b-4 approval Already approved by the SEC (May 2024) Submitted (June-December 2024), review deadline October 16, 2025 S-1 prospectus submission Multiple institutions have submitted and updated, scheduled to go live in July 2024 Multiple institutions have submitted, SEC requires update of S-1 in June 2025 Approval expectations Live in July 2024 (Staking ETF may launch in June 2025) The earliest by mid-July 2025, conservatively estimated for October Potential beneficiary assets ETH main coin, L2 ecosystem
SOL main coin, Meme coin ecosystem
Can you see it? Although Solana has not yet reached the 'official approval' stage of ETH in the process, it has now entered the stage of 'ETF public opinion catalysis + market speculation'. Moreover, because the trading volume and market value of Solana's main coin are not as high as ETH, its marginal driving force may actually be stronger.
But the question arises: the current on-chain heat of Solana is not at all the 'home field' of the main coin.
Structural misalignment: main coins are silent, Meme coins are soaring
If you flip through the hot search list on the Solana chain, it is almost entirely dominated by Meme coins: WIF, BOME, POPCAT, JEFF... various animal avatars and meme culture, with people shouting about 10x, 30x, or even 100x wealth every day. In contrast, the SOL main coin, as the 'main character' of the Solana ecosystem, has become the least talked about and least lively one.
This constitutes a very interesting structural contradiction:
On one side, retail investors are trading Meme coins, chasing highs and cutting losses, with short-term emotions running high;
On the other side, the ETF is on the verge of coming out, indicating that traditional institutions are paying attention to the SOL main coin and preparing for long-term allocation.
Two streams of capital - one hot, one cold; one fast, one slow; are currently misaligned and converging within the Solana ecosystem. So the question arises:
Will SOL, like ETH, welcome a wave of main coin rebound driven by the ETF catalyst?
Or will it continue to be marginalized by the Meme craze, clearly the protagonist, yet never reaching the spotlight?
So you may have realized - this wave of Solana's market is far more than just the story told by the word 'ETF'. Meme popularity, main coin technical aspects, on-chain activity, off-market fund layout... These factors are weaving together a multi-threaded trading environment where emotions and fundamentals intertwine. As a trader, the key is never to 'choose sides', but to identify rhythm and expectation differences and formulate smarter trading plans accordingly.
SOL main coin: trend logic + ETF expectations, key to breakout and confirmation
Compared to the highly volatile Meme coins, the trend of the SOL main coin is more trend-driven. Especially under the background of strong ETF expectations, technical analysis tends to focus on structural breakouts + pullback confirmations as mid-line signals.
Currently, the SOL price has risen above the EMA20 and EMA30 moving averages, showing a clear bullish arrangement structure, while accompanied by moderate volume expansion and the RSI breaking through the overbought threshold, the technical aspect is forming positive resonance signals. The short line has broken through the consolidation platform around $160, and the next step will test the key resistance zone of the previous high at $185-187. If the market can form an effective volume breakout in that range and stabilize above $180, the mid-line main upward wave structure is expected to be established.
At the same time, we can focus on the following key technical signals:
Indicator/Pattern Meaning Volume breakout above $160-170 platform Bullish momentum release signal; if volume continues to increase, it can further challenge previous highs EMA20/30 golden cross and shows bullish divergence Confirming trend direction upwards, supporting mid-line holding ideas RSI strong breakthrough above 70 (currently overbought) Extremely hot emotions, but no divergence has appeared, can continue to maintain strong structural observation Continuous volume expansion + no stagnation structure Healthy inflow rhythm of funds, indicating that the main coin has not been diluted in attention by the Meme trend
Traders can focus on: whether to form a structure of 'volume breakout candlestick + high-level consolidation not breaking EMA20'. If not, a stagnation + volume long upper shadow candlestick may still allow SOL to leverage the ETF catalyst to create a mid-line market.
Meme coins: emotional games + high volatility, more focused on trading volume and short-term structure
The trading logic of Meme coins is completely different from that of main coins; it is more like a short-term game driven by emotions and speculation, where technical analysis is used more to assist in judging popularity and gaming positions. Coins like WIF and BOME often see dozens of points in price increases in one candlestick, usually driven by emotional catalysts (hot searches, KOL calls, trading platform traffic).
For example, WIF's price quickly rose from about $0.95 to $1.0780 from June 10 to June 11, an increase of over 13%, clearly driven by a surge in trading volume (with significant volume expansion on June 10). This means that technical analysis should pay more attention to 'emotional turning points' and 'volume-price explosions'.
For these types of coins, commonly used short-term indicators include:
Indicator/Pattern Purpose Volume explosion + large upward candlestick A typical startup signal, igniting emotions RSI (extreme overbought/oversold) Judging whether to enter a short-term top or bottom reversal area Bollinger Bands convergence + volume breakout Starting point, often accompanied by concentrated emotional explosion MACD top divergence/bottom divergence Judging whether there is short-term adjustment risk after excessive rise Tick-by-tick order analysis (advanced) Judging whether there are actions of volume brushing or market smashing.
Traders can focus on: whether there is a structure of 'sideways contraction + sudden volume surge attack', whether hotspots, KOL calls, and other external catalysts are added.
Main coin vs Meme coin: technical analysis difference comparison
Project SOL main coin Meme coin Core driving logic Medium to long-term trends, institutional games, ETF expectations Short-term emotional traffic, social media heat, speculative behavior Main technical signals Breakthrough resistance level, trend continuation, moving average bullish arrangement Volume explosion, Bollinger Bands breakout, emotional turning point Indicator preferences EMA moving average system, MACD trend, OBV, CMF RSI extremes, Bollinger Bands, volume candlesticks, candlestick structure combinations Trading rhythm More mid-line, relatively mild rhythm More short-line, quick starts, quick pullbacks Risk management focus Set defense zones (such as previous platform levels) Quick in and out + profit-taking and stop-loss discipline
Meme frenzy vs ETF layout: hedging or resonance?
The lively scene on the Solana chain actually hides two worlds intertwining:
One is the FOMO, all-in, volatile game of Meme coins made up of on-chain retail investors;
The other is that off-market institutions are building asset allocation pools for the SOL main coin through channels like ETFs.
These two worlds appear to be a hedging relationship in the short term - retail investors create emotional volatility on-chain, while institutions are waiting for deterministic opportunities to gradually enter. But in the long term, they may not be unable to resonate. The traffic of Meme coins is a reflection of the heat of the Solana ecosystem; and ecological activity can precisely provide real support for the value of the main coin.
For us traders, what is more important is not 'which side to choose', but how to step on the rhythm difference correctly:
When the emotional cycle erupts, participate in Meme coins to seize segment opportunities;
When the ETF window approaches, stealthily hold SOL main coins to capture the main upward wave.
As long as they are grasped properly, Meme and main coins do not have to be opposing forces; they can completely become the dual engines in your position allocation.
So, when facing this 'main coin vs Meme coin' dual-line market, the technical perspective you choose actually determines which timeline you stand on. But this is not a binary opposition, but a multi-dimensional game about rhythm and allocation. A truly mature trader does not just chase the trendy spot but can identify different operational tracks of logic and grasp the misalignment of capital flows. ETFs are opportunities, Memes are tools, and progressing in both lines may allow you to carve out your own winning rate curve in this new narrative of Solana.
