Since tensions flared between Elon Musk and Donald Trump, the market has wobbled and social media has exploded with heated opinions about the so-called "Beautiful Big Bill." The clash between the sitting US president and the world's richest individual has also driven the prediction markets into a frenzy. A bet, with $134,277 on the line, has a 30% chance that the two sides will bury the hatchet before July.
Surging Bets on the Breakdown Between Musk and Trump — Betting 30% on Reconciliation in July
This week, the world's richest man, Elon Musk — the force behind Tesla, SpaceX, and owner of X (formerly Twitter) — clashed with the 47th President of the United States, Donald Trump. What triggered the confrontation? Musk fiercely condemned the "Big, Beautiful Bill" (BBB), calling it "an abominable disgrace" in a series of posts on his X platform.
Musk targeted the bill, criticizing it as "a massive, unreasonable congressional spending bill, filled with pork" and attacked the lawmakers who support it. He warned that it would increase the federal deficit and national debt. The market wobbled after his comments for reasons that no one could explain, and bitcoin (BTC) dropped to just over $100,000 before bouncing back to $106,000 on June 8.
Trump fired back, claiming he would win the election without Musk's help and bitterly accused him of changes in electric vehicle (EV) laws. He even floated the idea of cutting billions in federal subsidies that Musk's businesses receive. Naturally, the rift has caused prediction markets like Polymarket to accelerate.
A Polymarket bet of $81,002 is being played, giving Musk a 9% chance of declaring his candidacy for President of the United States in 2025. Another bet, with a volume of $596,843, assigns a 17% probability that he will establish a new political party by December 31, 2025, and a 7% chance he will do so by the end of this month. The Musk-Trump ceasefire rate for July is 30%, while Trump apologizing to Musk on Monday remains below 0 at -1%.
Meanwhile, Kalshi, a competing prediction platform, is also getting in on the act with its own series of bets. Kalshi traders say there is a 40% chance Trump will revoke Musk's security clearance. There is also a 12% chance Musk will return to Trump's inner circle and a 24% chance Musk will actually establish the political party he mentioned in this heated exchange with the president.
The Musk-Trump feud has become a grand spectacle, drawing attention like a reality TV show with stakes in the billions. While the market wobbles and prediction websites buzz, millions remain glued to this theater of ego and insult. It is a mix of politics and mockery, and somehow, people can't look away. In a world filled with real issues, side shows still capture all the attention.