Bitcoin has again become the focus of attention with another significant forecast. Global asset management firm Bernstein has stunned the market with a new price target: $200,000 per BTC by the end of 2025—a figure they describe as "conservative."
At a time when Bitcoin is trading above $105,000, such a prediction seems ambitious. But Bernstein's analysts are not alone in this bullish outlook.
Supported by strong fundamentals, from booming ETF demand to supply scarcity after halving, many institutional voices now also share similar long-term optimism.
ETF Momentum is Driving a New Phase of Institutional Demand
According to Bernstein, the rise of U.S.-based spot Bitcoin ETFs has "fundamentally changed the demand curve." Since their launch in early 2024, spot ETFs have attracted over $120 billion in assets under management. This inflow primarily comes from institutions, family offices, and high-net-worth investors.
"Bitcoin is no longer just a speculative asset," Bernstein's report states. "It is evolving into a globally accepted macro asset."
Leading ETFs like BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust and Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund have seen stable inflows, even during market consolidation phases. This reflects a significant shift; Bitcoin is no longer just a retail story.
Halving and Scarcity Effect
Another foundation in Bernstein's forecast is the Bitcoin halving in 2024, which will reduce the reward for miners from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. With new supply sharply decreasing daily, Bitcoin's inflation rate is lower than gold's.
This supply compression, combined with institutional demand, creates an attractive long-term outlook. Historically, Bitcoin price increases occur after each halving event, and the 2024 cycle seems to be following suit. Prices doubled from January to May, surpassing the $100,000 mark for the first time.
Favorable Winds of Macro Economy Support This Case
Global macro factors are also favoring Bitcoin. Rising national debt, currency devaluation, and geopolitical instability have driven renewed interest in hard assets, with Bitcoin, often referred to as "digital gold," standing out.
Anthony Scaramucci, founder of SkyBridge Capital, recently told CNBC,
"With the continuous global monetary expansion and the maturation of cryptocurrency infrastructure, I see $200,000 as not just a realistic figure but also feasible."
Bernstein's report further states that as institutions and sovereign individuals hedge against inflation and a weakening dollar, Bitcoin's value as a non-correlated asset with limited supply will continue to rise.
The Betting Market Remains Cautious—Current Situation
Interestingly, betting platforms like Polymarket only give a 14% chance of Bitcoin reaching $200,000 by 2025. This caution reflects concerns over potential regulatory changes, macro instability, and typical market volatility.
However, analysts argue that the disconnect between market sentiment and institutional positioning could be an opportunity. Traditionally, when sentiment lags behind fundamentals, it often signals the beginning, not the end, of a major trend.
Why Bernstein Calls $200,000 'Conservative'
What is truly noteworthy? Bernstein's analysts call $200,000 a "conservative estimate," implying that their internal models may indicate even higher long-term valuations.
They argue that this level is based on "modest" ETF capital flows and no major breakthroughs in regulation, suggesting that if adoption accelerates or new regulatory environments approve Bitcoin funds, the increases could be exponential.
Standard Chartered, another global banking giant, has also issued similar guidance, predicting Bitcoin could reach $200,000 by 2025 and possibly $500,000 by 2030.
The Path of Bitcoin in 2025: What Will Happen Next?
With less than 18 months until the end of 2025, this phase seems ready for a transformative cycle. If current ETF capital flows continue, combined with reduced supply and macro support, Bernstein's $200,000 prediction may not only be feasible but also underestimated.
As cryptocurrency adoption deepens across Asia, the Middle East, and Latin America, Bitcoin's global relevance is accelerating. In a world seeking safe havens amid economic instability, the story of Bitcoin's digital scarcity is attracting unprecedented attention.
Final Thoughts
Whether you consider it a bold gamble or a cautious prediction, Bernstein's forecast of $200,000 is not just a headline but also reflects Bitcoin's development path as an asset. And if the analysts are correct, we may only be witnessing the beginning of Bitcoin's institutional era.